Recent events have exposed the vulnerabilities of Southeast Asian economies to external shocks. ASEAN's exposure to the current Gulf energy shock reflects both its reliance on Middle Eastern energy imports, which prior to the crisis supplied around 60% of the region's crude oil imports and one-third of its natural gas imports, and its deep integration into global value chains.
Percentage points change from the time-limited disruption scenario
OECD analysis shows that ASEAN economies are particularly exposed to the current shock. While exposure varies considerably across countries and sectors, indirect effects transmitted through production networks and supply-chain linkages can extend well beyond the most energy-intensive industries. Higher costs can ripple through transport, logistics, manufacturing, construction and even service sectors, ultimately contributing to broader inflationary pressures across the economy. Rising energy prices can also increase the cost of key industrial inputs such as plastics, aluminium and synthetic rubber, while higher fuel and fertiliser costs can raise the cost of agricultural production, food processing and distribution, with knock-on effects across manufacturing, agrifood systems and consumer prices.
Evidence increasingly points to a link between digital capabilities and firms' ability to navigate disruption.
OECD work underlines the potential adaptive capacity of more digitalised firms and their ability to better withstand and cushion shocks during periods of uncertainty. During the COVID-19 pandemic, highly digitalised and intangible-intensive firms were approximately half as likely to experience financial distress as firms with lower intangible intensity. High-tech firms also experienced significantly smaller declines in revenue (around 15% compared with 23%) and employment (5% compared with 9%).
The digital advantage in uncertain times
While the potential benefits of digitalisation during periods of disruption are increasingly being explored, digital platforms can help businesses diversify customers and markets, data analytics can improve visibility over suppliers and inventories, and cloud-based solutions can support business continuity when operations are disrupted. By improving access to information, strengthening business networks and strategic partnerships, and enabling more agile decision-making, digitalisation can help reduce some of the resource and financing constraints traditionally faced by SMEs, while creating opportunities for innovation and growth.
ASEAN’s digital economy and the emerging regional AI ecosystem are becoming important drivers of both growth and resilience. Digital trade exports reached an estimated USD 387 billion in 2022, accounting for almost one-fifth of ASEAN's exports. Growth has been driven in particular by digitally deliverable services, which expanded by around 11% annually between 2005 and 2023, compared with approximately 6% for non-digitally deliverable services and goods exports.
These trends are being reinforced by growing investment in digital infrastructure, with more than USD 50 billion committed to AI-ready data centres across the region. Importantly, digitalisation is not simply creating a new sector alongside the traditional economy; it is increasingly transforming how firms across sectors operate, compete and respond to disruption.
AI is adding a further dimension
AI has significant potential to boost productivity, support innovation and strengthen supply-chain management. In particular, the Forum highlighted that AI presents significant opportunities for SMEs, but adoption remains uneven. Across OECD countries, only 17.5% of small firms used AI in 2025, compared with more than half (52.1%) of large firms. Similar challenges are evident across ASEAN, where many SMEs remain at an early stage of experimentation and continue to face barriers related to skills, finance, infrastructure and awareness.
AI adoption pathways vary across firms, suggesting that SMEs may require different forms of support depending on their level of digital maturity, capabilities and business needs. This is reflected in initiatives such as the G7 SME AI Adoption Blueprint, which recognises diverse adoption pathways and the need for tailored support.
The next phase of SME competitiveness
Digitalisation can strengthen the capabilities firms need to address external shocks and remain competitive. This requires going beyond technology adoption to supporting skills development, organisational capabilities, and the effective use of digital tools in day-to-day business operations.
At the same time, the growing reliance on digital technologies can increase exposure to cybersecurity risks and cybercrime, making digital trust an increasingly important component of resilience. Significant gaps also remain in access to skills, connectivity, finance and trusted digital services, particularly among smaller and less digitally mature firms. Without appropriate and targeted support, disparities in digital capabilities could reinforce existing productivity and competitiveness gaps between firms.
Ensuring that all SMEs, not only the most digitally advanced, can harness the benefits of digitalisation and AI will be essential to building a more adaptable, competitive and resilient ASEAN economy. The OECD will continue working with ASEAN countries to support these efforts and help SMEs build the capabilities needed to thrive in an increasingly uncertain environment.