Why is autism diagnosis on the rise, and what does it mean for children and families?

Over the past decade, autism diagnosis in children has risen sharply across OECD countries, with annual increases typically between 6% and 10%.

Several factors are at play here. Firstly, diagnostic criteria have evolved, bringing together conditions that were previously considered separate under a single “spectrum”. Awareness of autism has also grown among parents, teachers and health professionals, while declining stigma has made families more likely to seek help. As a result, children are now being assessed earlier in life, often from around the age of two.

Together, these changes mean that many children who might once have gone unnoticed are now being diagnosed. This is a major step forward, as early diagnosis can open the door to interventions that help children develop better communication, social and learning skills at a critical stage of life.

However, as more families seek a diagnosis, public systems are struggling to keep up. In many countries, waiting times are long, and there is a shortage of trained specialists.

For some families, this means turning to private providers if they can afford it. Others face delays that can affect their child’s access to support, with differences persisting across gender, income and background. Girls, for example, are still less likely to be diagnosed than boys, often because their symptoms present differently and can be harder to recognise. Children from disadvantaged or minority communities may also face additional barriers, from limited awareness to difficulties navigating healthcare systems. These pressures highlight a major issue: although diagnosis has become more common, access remains unequal.

Another core question is how best to support children with autism– and here, countries take very different approaches.

Most offer a mix of financial assistance and support services. Families may receive payments to help cover lost income or additional costs, as well as be given access to therapy, educational support and social services. These can make an enormous difference, helping children participate more fully in school and community life.

But eligibility for services and financial benefits varies widely across countries. In most cases, eligibility is based on an assessment of a child’s support needs, rather than on a medical diagnosis alone. In practice, this means identifying the concrete assistance a child requires in everyday situations – for example, whether they need someone to feed or dress them, continuous supervision to stay safe, or occasional one-to-one support in the classroom. It can also include the need for repeated, structured training to learn specific skills, such as using communication tools to interact with peers. These assessments look at what kind of support and how much of it is needed.

A medical diagnosis does not capture this level of detail. Some conditions – especially autism – cover a wide spectrum of needs, meaning that two children with the same diagnosis may have very different day-to-day support needs. As a result, diagnosis alone provides only limited information about the type and intensity of support a child requires, whether human, technological, or practical.

Basing eligibility on assessed needs allows public services and allowances to be better targeted: children with greater support needs receive more assistance, while those with milder support needs receive less. This distinction is difficult – mostly impossible – to make using medical diagnosis alone.

However, in some countries, such as Israel and Australia, families can access certain benefits based solely on a medical diagnosis, without a detailed assessment of the child’s needs. While this approach can simplify access, it often results in support that is not well aligned with an individual child’s situation. This reflects a broader challenge across many OECD countries: moving beyond a narrow, medical approach to disability toward a more holistic understanding of people’s support needs. 

School is another key part of the picture. Across OECD countries, there is a growing commitment to inclusive education – supporting children with autism to learn alongside their peers in mainstream classrooms. Bringing children with autism into mainstream classrooms benefits everyone: it nurtures empathy, reduces stigma, and helps all students grow up learning side by side in environments that reflect the diversity of real life. Yet many children with disability and/or special educational needs are still taught in separate settings, such as specialised classes or schools

In practice, inclusion can take many forms. Some children benefit from support provided by teaching assistants or from tailored learning plans that adapt the curriculum to their needs. Others rely on assistive technologies. What works best ultimately depends on the individual child – highlighting the importance of flexible, personalised support systems.

Besides creating more inclusive learning environments, there is lots of other work that can be done. Systems need to expand their capacity so that families are not left waiting for diagnosis or support. The support itself must be both fair and flexible, and more attention is needed to ensure that all children can access diagnosis and care, regardless of their background.

Perhaps most importantly, we still know too little about what works best in the long term. Which combinations of therapies, education and social support lead to better outcomes in adulthood? How can early interventions be improved? Answering these questions requires more and better evidence. Long-term research and systematic evaluations of existing programmes are essential to understand what truly makes a difference, for whom, and under what circumstances.

The goal is simple: to build systems that allow every child with autism to reach their full potential.

To learn more about policy responses and disability support in different OECD countries for children with autism, read our publication: Policy Responses to Rising Autism Diagnoses in Childhood: Across the Spectrum | OECD. To explore other OECD work on disability, including insights on how early intervention can improve outcomes across education and employment, and efforts to strengthen disability assessments and support systems, visit our website: Sickness and disability | OECD.