By 2025, the global population is expected to reach 8.2 billion, rising by another 800 million over the following decade. Behind these numbers are individuals, each with unique dietary needs shaped by income, culture, geography, health, and personal preferences.
As urbanisation spreads and disposable incomes rise, diets are shifting toward more diverse and nutrient-rich foods. According to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034, the global share of calories from livestock and fish products is projected to increase by 6% by 2034. In lower-middle-income economies, this figure is expected to grow by 24%, pushing average daily intake of nutrient-rich animal products to 364 kcal, above the 300 kcal benchmark used in the FAO's Healthy Diet Basket.
While global agricultural and fish production is projected to grow by 14% by 2034, largely thanks to improved productivity, access to this food remains deeply unequal. Millions of people will still fall short of basic dietary needs. The challenge is not only to increase supply, but to ensure that nutritious food is affordable, accessible, and equitably distributed.
Boosting agricultural productivity to reduce pressure on resources
The good news: most of the projected increase in global food output will come from sustainable productivity growth and not from using additional resources. Middle-income countries are expected to lead the way through gains in agricultural productivity, supported by better technology, inputs, and farming practices.
However, this growth is still accompanied by the expansion of animal herds and cropland, contributing to a projected 6% rise in direct agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 2034.
There is another path. Scenario analysis in the Outlook shows that undernourishment could be eliminated and agricultural emissions reduced by 7% if productivity increases by 15% and emissions-reduction technologies are widely adopted. That means smarter production, not just more.
Scalable agricultural solutions must reach smallholders
Real agricultural commodity prices are expected to decline modestly as productivity improves. But for smallholders, often the most vulnerable to shocks and least equipped to invest in innovation, this adds pressure to stay competitive.
To protect farm incomes and rural livelihoods, scalable solutions such as access to better inputs like high-quality seeds and fertilisers, knowledge, markets, and tailored risk management must reach the farmers who need them most. Ongoing price volatility from climate events, trade disruptions, and geopolitical risks makes this even more urgent.
Global food security depends on open, resilient trade
In times of crisis, whether from a pandemic, drought, or geopolitical tension, trade becomes a critical lifeline. The Outlook projects that by 2034, over 22% of globally consumed calories will be traded across borders.
Open, transparent, and rules-based agricultural trade is essential for balancing supply and demand. It enables food to flow from surplus areas to deficit regions, stabilises prices, and strengthens resilience to global disruptions.
Trade policy must also ensure that smaller producers, especially family farmers and rural entrepreneurs, can access international markets. That means aligning sustainability standards, improving logistics, and reducing bottlenecks in global supply chains.
A sector at the centre of global dependencies and global solutions
Agriculture sits at the intersection of the world’s most urgent challenges: food security, environmental sustainability, and rural livelihoods. It also depends on energy, water, trade, and technology, which leave food systems exposed to external shocks.
The OECD–FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034 outlines a path forward to feed nearly 9 billion people by 2034: One that builds resilience through productivity, inclusiveness, innovation, and cooperation.
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