Global debt markets remained resilient in 2025 amidst geopolitical tensions, trade disputes and risks for growth prospects, with governments and companies borrowing a record USD 27 trillion, according to a new OECD report.
The OECD Global Debt Report 2026: Sustaining Debt Market Resilience Under Growing Pressure, highlights low levels of volatility, improving liquidity and corporate spreads at near-historic lows across the USD 109 trillion global bond market, which now stands at 93% of world GDP, up from 81% in 2015.
The report projects that borrowing will rise further in 2026, to USD 29 trillion, driven by growing sovereign funding needs and increasing corporate sector use of debt markets. It also points to significant changes in the bond market investor base, notably the growing role of more price-sensitive and leveraged investors that may leave markets more vulnerable to shocks.
“Global debt markets have remained resilient as borrowing has hit record highs, but debt-servicing costs are increasing, and AI-related financing needs are growing sharply,” OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said. “To safeguard stability in the years to come while meeting growing public and private financing needs, governments need to address volatility risks stemming from shifts in the debt investor base, pursue sound fiscal policies to enhance debt sustainability, and strengthen medium-term growth prospects.”
Sovereign bond issuance in OECD countries is projected to reach a record USD 18 trillion in 2026, up from USD 12 trillion in 2022. Outstanding debt is estimated to have risen from USD 55 trillion in 2024 to USD 61 trillion in 2025. Debt relative to GDP remained stable, at 83% in the OECD countries, but is projected to rise to 85% in 2026.
In emerging markets and developing economies, sovereign borrowing from debt markets hit USD 4 trillion in 2025, bringing the total debt stock to USD 14 trillion, or 30% of GDP, the highest level since 2007.
Corporate borrowing from markets reached its highest level ever in real terms in 2025, with total debt raised across corporate bond and syndicated loan markets hitting USD 13.7 trillion, surpassing the 2021 peak of USD 13.5 trillion. Outstanding debt reached USD 59.5 trillion at year-end 2025, of which USD 36.4 trillion in bonds and USD 23.1 trillion in syndicated loans. Given the scale of capital expenditure required to finance the expansion of AI technology, corporate borrowing needs are expected to increase substantially going forward.
Borrowing costs remain a concern - sovereign real yields are elevated, especially at longer maturities, and higher interest rates are beginning to flow through to the corporate debt stock. Sovereign borrowers have responded by shifting their issuance towards shorter maturities, in an effort to mitigate interest expenditures. The share of issuance in 2025 with a maturity over 10 years reached its lowest point since 2009 for sovereign borrowers, and the lowest on record for corporates.
Corporates, whose borrowing predominantly carries fixed-rate interest structures, have not seen their interest expenditure increase as much as sovereigns, but the shift towards higher interest spending is also clearly visible. Securities with an interest rate above 4% made up half of outstanding investment grade bonds at the end of 2025, while 15% of outstanding non-investment grade bonds cost 8% or more, up from 10% of outstanding bonds in 2021. As near-term refinancing needs disproportionately consist of low-cost debt, this trend is expected to continue.
Central banks remain the largest domestic holders of government debt in many OECD countries, but, as they have reduced their balance sheets, the market is increasingly dependent on price-sensitive investors, such as hedge funds, households and certain institutional investors. This transition in the sovereign debt market – from price-insensitive demand of central banks to price-sensitive demand from other investors – has the potential to increase market volatility and can be expected to reverberate in the corporate market as well.
This year’s report assesses how technology companies are set to become ever-larger issuers in debt markets as they shift their funding model from internally generated cash to external funding to finance the capital-intensive AI expansion, notably data centres. In 2025, nine major players commonly known as “hyperscalers” raised an aggregate of USD 122 billion from bond markets, accounting for nearly half of all technology firm issuance globally.
The report suggests that the AI transformation is set to become a major financing event in global markets for years to come, possibly setting debt markets on a course towards greater concentration, similar to developments in equity markets in recent years. The nine hyperscaler firms alone have projected cumulative capital expenditure of USD 4.1 trillion from 2026 to 2030, about 35% more than total capital expenditure by all US non-financial companies in 2025. If half of these investments were financed by bond markets, these nine firms would represent 15% of global historical average issuance by non-financial issuers annually.
Go here for further information on the report with key findings and charts (this link can be used in media articles).
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