Vaughn introduces a new framework for thinking pragmatically about unknowns as four types of not-knowing. This framework goes beyond traditional risk assessment frameworks and is vital for foresight practitioners in an increasingly unpredictable world. He outlines four distinct types of uncertainty, each distinct from risk, and each offering unique opportunities for policy innovation. Differentiating between these four types of not-knowings enables more nuanced strategy and strategic planning. Unlike risk framings, these four types of not-knowings each create different spaces for adaptive and effective governance. By recognising these types of non-risk not-knowings, public sector leaders can develop more resilient and creative approaches to uncertainty and make more effective policy for a complex and unpredictable future.
Vaughn Tan: Thinking beyond risks: Why foresight and policy should reframe unknowns as different types of not-knowing
- Date
- 14 May 2025
- Time
- 12:00-13:00 CET
About
Speakers
Vaughn Tan
Independent consultant, author, speaker, and strategy professor at UCL.
Prof. Vaughn Tan is an independent strategy consultant who works with governments, businesses, and not-for-profits to build effective strategies for adapting to uncertain futures. He is the author of The Uncertainty Mindset (Columbia University Press, 2020), a book about using uncertainty as a strategic tool for designing innovative and adaptable organizations. Vaughn is a Fellow of the Singapore Government's Centre for Strategic Futures, an executive board member for Rethink Food, a founding partner in Dreddge, and Head of Southeast Asia Executive Education for University College London. Previously, he worked for Google in California. He has a PhD in Organizational Behavior and Sociology from Harvard University and Harvard Business School. Draft chapters of his new book on not-knowings are available here.