The 2024 Global Strategy Group (GSG) meeting on 15-16 October, co-chaired by Canada and Greece, considered the futures of global artificial intelligence (AI) governance, given the potential transformative impacts of this technology on economies and societies, including implications for Emerging Markets and Developing Economies.
2024 OECD Global Strategy Group
Futures of Global AI Governance: Co-Creating an Approach for Transforming Economies and Societies
- Date
- 15-16 October 2024
- Location
- Paris, France
About
Why use strategic foresight?
Exploring futures is a call to action. Navigating the possibilities ahead demands rigorous analytical research, data-driven insights, multidisciplinary analyses and transformative experiences to support modern, evidence-based and anticipatory policymaking and governance.
The GSG meeting explored four future scenarios set in 2035: an ideal future (Inclusive Governance, Shared Prosperity) for a thriving rules-based international order, two other suboptimal futures (Cautious and Controlled; Fast and Furious), and a worst-case scenario (Breakthroughs Backfire).
The scenarios are hypothetical narratives informed by emerging evidence, megatrends and different sets of assumptions about how various futures could unfold. No assessment is made of their relative likelihood. They do not reflect the views of the OECD or of its member countries.
Scenarios allow policymakers to explore multiple possible futures to reveal and stress-test their assumptions about possible futures and inform long-term strategies subject to deep uncertainty.
What methodology for scenario creation?
The methodological approach to derive the four scenarios is guided by, but not limited to, a 2x2 matrix along two dimensions to reflect the major strands of the global AI policy debate:
1) Safety and responsibility
2) Inclusion and access
The global governance system can prioritise these dimensions to varying degrees, influencing the development and deployment of future AI innovations. In an ideal scenario, the system would secure a future with trustworthy and human-centric AI that benefits all. Two suboptimal scenarios illustrate a global governance system in which one of these dimensions is prioritised at the expense of the other. A worst-case scenario describes a system where neither of these dimensions is achieved.
Two cross-cutting sub-themes are discussed across each of the scenarios:
A) AI innovations for sustainable development, environmental protection, productivity growth, the transformation of labour and social cohesion.
B) Promoting competitive markets and managing evolving global power dynamics.
Contact us
For more information, visit the Strategic Foresight | OECD website or contact us directly at foresight@oecd.org