Statistics Working Paper N. 49 - 2012/5 - We estimate the business-cycles of G7 countries, as defined by an ideal 2-10 year bandpass filter applied to country-specific GDP target series (GDP-BP). The paper shows that efficiency gains by the Multivariate Direct Filter Approach (MDFA)over HP are substantial along the full revision-sequence and they are consistent across countries as well as over time, when referenced against GDP-BP.
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Report on the Comparison of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter and the Multivariate Direct Filter Approach in Composite Leading Indicators Construction - A case for G7 Countries
The aim of this site is to promote continued development and facilitate best practice through sharing of information on business tendency and consumer surveys and statistics between international organisations and national institutes.
Source : Principaux indicateurs économiques (PIE) de l'OCDE. Les indicateurs composites avancés sont calculés pour 29 pays membres (l’Islande étant exclue), pour six économies non membres et pour neuf zones. L’indicateur composite avancé d’un pays comporte un ensemble de séries composantes choisies parmi un large éventail d'indicateurs économiques à court terme inclus dans la base de données des PIE.
The Standardised Confidence Indicators (for manufacturing industry and consumers) are confidence indicators comparable across countries. Comparability has been achieved by careful selection of national indicators, and by smoothing, centring, and amplitude adjusting these series. The series are updated continuously.
The objective of the joint EC– OECD workshop on the international development of business and consumer tendency surveys held on 17 - 18 November 2011 is to foster harmonization of business and consumer opinion surveys. It also provides a forum to exchange knowledge and discuss the current challenges and prospects in the field.
Statistics Working Paper N. 39- 2011/4 - This paper reports on revision properties of different de-trending and smoothing methods (cycle estimation methods), including PAT with MCD smoothing, a double Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter and the Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF) filter. The different cycle estimation methods are rated on their revision performance in a simulated real time experiment. Our goal is to find a robust method that gives
Consumer confidence in the OECD area has levelled out since January 2010, possibly announcing a new peak or maybe just indicating uncertainty in the coming months. Confidence levels remain historically low, a result of the financial crisis and indicating that the effects of the crisis are continuing to be felt by consumers who remain pessimistic about the future.
Français, , 329kb
In July 2010, the OECD reviewed the CLI for 3 countries (China, India, Indonesia). In doing so, some component series have been dropped or replaced. As a consequence, chronology of turning points of the CLIs as well as component series have been revised.
Français, , 1,054kb
In February 2010, the OECD reviewed the CLI for 8 countries (Brazil, China, Indonesia, Ireland, Korea, the Slovak Republic, Switzerland, the Russian Federation). In doing so, some component series have been dropped or replaced. As a consequence, chronology of turning points of the CLIs as well as component series have been revised. This document provides further details on the change.