Real GDP growth is projected to decrease to 1.7% in 2026 from 2.4% in 2025, mostly driven by the impact of the evolving Middle East conflict on trade and domestic demand. A pick-up in growth to 2.1% is expected in 2027 as conflict impacts fade and household spending recovers. Inflation will spike in 2026 due to rising energy prices. In addition to conflict-related uncertainties, risks around trade tariffs and household debt could lead to weaker growth outcomes.
Monetary policy could ease further if economic conditions worsen. By contrast, scope for fiscal support is limited; measures helping households and businesses need to be tightly targeted, and time bound to contain their fiscal costs. Post-crisis, fiscal consolidation must be strongly prioritised to put the public-debt burden on a downward path. Additional impetus should be given to policies that diminish oil dependence while reducing carbon emissions, including an accelerated rollout of renewables. Thailand’s trend productivity, which has been flagging, could be strengthened by making regulation more conducive to competition.