This year marks the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement. Adopted at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) COP21 in 2015, the Agreement established a novel framework for international climate co-operation that encouraged countries to determine their own commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This anniversary is an opportunity to reflect on progress made and key challenges ahead as countries submit the next round of voluntary climate commitments, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
This report explores the question: Would the progress made on climate action over the last 10 years still have happened without the Paris Agreement? – through the perspectives of over 250 government policymakers and climate change experts from more than 60 countries. Drawing on the global survey that uses scenario-based analysis, the study asks experts to consider how climate action might have evolved without the Agreement. Moreover, the survey provides insights on the current state of climate change mitigation efforts, as these are perceived by experts on policy action. The report presents the most pressing challenges highlighted by survey respondents, while identifying the key barriers to adopting more ambitious commitments and implementing existing pledges. The report also looks ahead by exploring which policies are perceived as most transformative and which strategies as most effective.
The survey respondents clearly and consistently expressed the view that the Paris Agreement has contributed meaningfully to strengthening climate policy frameworks, driving higher ambition, and promoting broader participation and accountability. In its absence, expert respondents indicate that climate change mitigation would likely be a lower policy priority, mitigation policies would be less developed, and co-ordination across countries on climate change would also be less ambitious and less effective. Yet, achieving the Agreement’s goal of keeping the global temperature increase well below 2°C requires overcoming persistent challenges. Sound policy frameworks, technological innovation and behavioural change all have roles to play, but their effectiveness hinges on continued ambition and sustained investment.
With the world entering a new cycle of NDC updates, the insights from this study contribute to continuing the momentum of the Paris Agreement and to informing the next phase of climate action. By documenting expert perspectives on what has been achieved, what might not have been achieved without the Paris Agreement, and what remains to be done, this report provides new insights to guide future climate action.
Mathias Cormann
Secretary-General
OECD