This OECD Environmental Outlook focusses on the triple planetary crisis of climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution. It develops an integrated modelling framework that links socio-economic drivers and environmental outcomes as well as an analytical framework for exploring the complex interlinkages between the challenges at multiple levels, including their drivers, pressures, states and policy responses.
The report contains a total of seven chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the stakes of the triple planetary crisis and their notable biophysical and policy linkages and establishes key contributions of the Outlook.
The following two chapters present model-based projections on how environmental change may unfold through to 2050 based on the policies that are currently in place. Chapter 2 unpacks the common and underlying drivers of the triple planetary crisis. Chapter 3 examines the current and projected state of each dimension of the triple planetary crisis, providing quantitative insights into the evolution of mutually reinforcing challenges.
The subsequent three chapters turn to policy interlinkages. Chapter 4 develops a clustered approach to analysing the interactions between policies that aim to tackle climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution and provides a conceptual overview of potential synergies and trade-offs. Chapter 5 presents a policy stocktake based on the Biennial Transparency Reports (submitted under the Paris Agreement) and the National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (submitted under the Convention on Biological Diversity) of ten countries examine the extent to which synergies and trade-offs are currently considered. Chapter 6 explores the synergies and trade-offs between responses to climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution at the implementation stage through four deep dives on: (i) renewable energy expansion, (ii) management and expansion of protected areas, (iii) air pollution control and (iv) nutrient management. Chapter 7 summarises the key findings and presents a roadmap for policy action to tackle the triple planetary crisis.