Scenarios for the Future of Schooling


Download PDF | By SfT/CERI Secretariat | Published in What Schools for the Future?, 2001


This article presents the six Schooling for Tomorrow scenarios as originally constructed, and their full analysis. The clustering of scenarios has been changed since their first publication in 2001, so the presentation here differs slightly from that in the Starter Pack briefs: 'system meltdown' is now a separate crisis-situation category; and the 'extended market model' scenario, which entails far-reaching changes from traditional schooling, has moved from the 'status quo' to the 'de-schooling' cluster. Their common framework and the scenario contents have mostly remained unchanged, and been used extensively to inform policy debate and professional development in many countries.


In this article the scenarios appear as follows:


 The “status-quo extrapolated”

The “re-schooling” scenarios

 The “de-schooling” scenarios

Scenario 1: Robust bureaucratic school systems Scenario

Scenario 3: Schools as core social centers

Scenario 5: Learner networks and the network society

Scenario 2: Extending the market model 

Scenario 4: School as focus learning centers

Scenario 6: Teacher exodus – the meltdown scenario


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