Leading indicators

Fifth Joint European Commission-OECD Workshop on International Development of Business and Consumer Tendency Surveys, Brussels, 17 - 18 November 2011


Draft agenda (pdf)



Information for participants

Presenter guidelines

Previous workshops

The venue for the meeting will be: Crowne Plaza Europa Hotel

107 Rue de la Loi
1040 Bruxelles
Tel: +32 2 230 13 33
Fax: +32 2 230 03 26


Participation at this workshop is by invitation only.  For further information, please contact

Workshop objective


The objective of the joint EC– OECD workshop is to foster harmonization of business and consumer opinion surveys. It also provides a forum to exchange knowledge and discuss the current challenges and prospects in the field.


Draft agenda


THURSDAY, 17 November


14.30 – 18.00  Session 1.  Survey design and management


14:30 – 14:45  Welcome and introduction - EC and OECD


14:45 15:05  Towards the improvement of the Tankan Survey: imputing missing values
Takahiro Hirakawa, Bank of Japan
abstract  presentation


15:05 15:25  Proceedings: On measuring data quality of business tendency surveys – an approach at the individual level
Matthias Bannert, Switzerland (KOF)
abstract  presentation


15:25 15:45  SME Index in tendency surveys
Daphna Aviram-Nitzan, Israel, Manufacturers Association of Israel
abstract  presentation


15:45 16:00  Discussion


16.00 – 16.20   Coffee break


16:20 16:40  Monthly business leaders’ opinion survey in the manufacturing sector
Carlos Sandoval, INEGI, Mexico
abstract  paper  presentation


16:40 17:00  Establishing a business tendency survey using the job vacancy survey's foundation
Muriel Shafir, Central Bureau of Statistics, Israel
abstract  presentation


17:00 17:20  On the performance of consumer confidence measurement
Türknur Hamsici Brand, Central Bank of Turkey
abstract  paper  presentation


17:20 17:40  The consumer confidence survey in Israel based on the social survey sample
Dr Dmitri Romanov, Central Bureau of Statistics, Israel
abstract  presentation


17:40 18:00  Discussion


19:00 Dinner: l'Atelier européen  (128 rue Franklin, 1000 Brussels)


FRIDAY, 18 November

9:00 – 12:50   Session 2.  Applications and research


9:00 9:20  “Those unpredictable recessions…” 
Sergey Smirnov, Higher School of Economics, Moscow
abstract  paper  presentation


9:20 9:40  Indicators of financial conditions and other sentiment indicators in the context of the Leading Economic Index for the United States
Ataman Ozyildirim, The Conference Board, USA
abstract  presentation


9:40 10:00  Nowcasting GDP directional change with BTS data
Matthieu Cornec, INSEE, France
paper  presentation


10:00 10:20  Derive a non-inflationary rate of capacity utilization (NIRCU) based on firm-level micro data
Eva Köberl, Switzerland (KOF)
abstract  paper  presentation


10:20 10:40  Discussion


10:40 11:00   Coffee break


11:00 11:20  The use of BCS data in turning points detection
Gian Luigi Mazzi, EUROSTAT



11:20 11:40  Is there a decoupling between soft and hard data? The relationship between GDP growth and the ESI
Angela D’Elia, European Commission/Olivier Biau, INSEE
abstract  paper  presentation


11:40 12:00  Industrial production and confidence after the crisis: what's going on?
Marco Malgarini, ISTAT, Italy
paper  presentation


12:00 12:20  Analysing business tendency survey series for the presence of seasonality
Francesca Spinelli, OECD
abstract  presentation


12:20 12:40 A novel analytical system for monitoring relevant trade based on sentiment indicators
Daan Zult, Statistics Netherlands

abstract  paper  presentation


12:40 13:00  Discussion and conclusions