Leading indicators

Fifth Joint European Commission-OECD Workshop on International Development of Business and Consumer Tendency Surveys, Brussels, 17 - 18 November 2011


Draft agenda (pdf)



Information for participants

Presenter guidelines

Previous workshops

The venue for the meeting will be: Crowne Plaza Europa Hotel

107 Rue de la Loi
1040 Bruxelles
Tel: +32 2 230 13 33
Fax: +32 2 230 03 26


Participation at this workshop is by invitation only.  For further information, please contact [email protected]

Workshop objective


The objective of the joint EC– OECD workshop is to foster harmonization of business and consumer opinion surveys. It also provides a forum to exchange knowledge and discuss the current challenges and prospects in the field.


Draft agenda


THURSDAY, 17 November


14.30 – 18.00  Session 1.  Survey design and management


14:30 – 14:45  Welcome and introduction - EC and OECD


14:45 15:05  Towards the improvement of the Tankan Survey: imputing missing values
Takahiro Hirakawa, Bank of Japan
abstract  presentation


15:05 15:25  Proceedings: On measuring data quality of business tendency surveys – an approach at the individual level
Matthias Bannert, Switzerland (KOF)
abstract  presentation


15:25 15:45  SME Index in tendency surveys
Daphna Aviram-Nitzan, Israel, Manufacturers Association of Israel
abstract  presentation


15:45 16:00  Discussion


16.00 – 16.20   Coffee break


16:20 16:40  Monthly business leaders’ opinion survey in the manufacturing sector
Carlos Sandoval, INEGI, Mexico
abstract  paper  presentation


16:40 17:00  Establishing a business tendency survey using the job vacancy survey's foundation
Muriel Shafir, Central Bureau of Statistics, Israel
abstract  presentation


17:00 17:20  On the performance of consumer confidence measurement
Türknur Hamsici Brand, Central Bank of Turkey
abstract  paper  presentation


17:20 17:40  The consumer confidence survey in Israel based on the social survey sample
Dr Dmitri Romanov, Central Bureau of Statistics, Israel
abstract  presentation


17:40 18:00  Discussion


19:00 Dinner: l'Atelier européen  (128 rue Franklin, 1000 Brussels)


FRIDAY, 18 November

9:00 – 12:50   Session 2.  Applications and research


9:00 9:20  “Those unpredictable recessions…” 
Sergey Smirnov, Higher School of Economics, Moscow
abstract  paper  presentation


9:20 9:40  Indicators of financial conditions and other sentiment indicators in the context of the Leading Economic Index for the United States
Ataman Ozyildirim, The Conference Board, USA
abstract  presentation


9:40 10:00  Nowcasting GDP directional change with BTS data
Matthieu Cornec, INSEE, France
paper  presentation


10:00 10:20  Derive a non-inflationary rate of capacity utilization (NIRCU) based on firm-level micro data
Eva Köberl, Switzerland (KOF)
abstract  paper  presentation


10:20 10:40  Discussion


10:40 11:00   Coffee break


11:00 11:20  The use of BCS data in turning points detection
Gian Luigi Mazzi, EUROSTAT



11:20 11:40  Is there a decoupling between soft and hard data? The relationship between GDP growth and the ESI
Angela D’Elia, European Commission/Olivier Biau, INSEE
abstract  paper  presentation


11:40 12:00  Industrial production and confidence after the crisis: what's going on?
Marco Malgarini, ISTAT, Italy
paper  presentation


12:00 12:20  Analysing business tendency survey series for the presence of seasonality
Francesca Spinelli, OECD
abstract  presentation


12:20 12:40 A novel analytical system for monitoring relevant trade based on sentiment indicators
Daan Zult, Statistics Netherlands

abstract  paper  presentation


12:40 13:00  Discussion and conclusions