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Leading indicators and tendency surveys

Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), OECD, July 2022

 

Leading indicators for most OECD countries continue to signal growth losing momentum

 

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11 July 2022 - The OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend over the next six to nine months, continue to signal growth losing momentum in most major economies and in the OECD area as a whole.

Among large OECD economies, the CLI for the United States now signals growth losing momentum, a change from last month’s stable growth indication. In the United Kingdom, Canada and in the euro area as a whole, including Germany, France and Italy, the CLIs continue to anticipate growth losing momentum, dragged down by high inflation, low consumer confidence and declining share prices. In Japan, the CLI continues to point to stable growth.

Among major emerging-market economies, growth is expected to lose momentum in China (industrial sector) and to slow in Brazil. In India, the CLI points to stable growth.

Ongoing uncertainties related to the war in Ukraine and COVID-19 are resulting in higher than usual fluctuations in the CLI components. As a result, the indicators should be interpreted with care and their magnitude should be regarded as an indication of the strength of the signal rather than as a measure of growth in economic activity. The CLIs are based on a range of forward-looking indicators such as order books, confidence indicators, building permits, long-term interest rates, new car registrations, and many more. Most indicators are available up to June 2022.

 

‌‌‌‌‌‌OECD area: Growth losing momentum

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the Composite Leading Indicators are compiled
  

Please note that in the video “business cycle” should be understood as the growth cycle (deviation to trend), and that the term “recession” should be understood as an economic slowdown rather than a recession.

 

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