Leading indicators and tendency surveys

Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), OECD, February 2021


CLIs point to stable growth in most large OECD economies


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9 Feb 2021 - The OECD Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, point to stable growth in most large OECD economies.

The CLIs continue to signal stable growth in the United States, Japan and the euro area as a whole, including Germany, France and Italy. In Canada, the CLI now points to stabilising growth. The CLI for the United Kingdom still signals a slowdown.

Among major emerging economies, the CLIs for the manufacturing sector of China and for India and Brazil all point to a steady increase in growth.In Russia, the CLI continues to signal stable growth.

The CLIs should continue to be interpreted with care as fluctuations in the underlying components are likely influenced by the changing measures to contain Covid-19 and the progress of vaccination campaigns. 

OECD area: Stable growth

Visit the interactive OECD Data Portal to explore this data further.

The above graph show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs solid line, left axis and the relative month-on-month growth rate, right axis). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by six to nine months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed

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the Composite Leading Indicators are compiled

Please note that in the video “business cycle” should be understood as the growth cycle (deviation to trend), and that the term “recession” should be understood as an economic slowdown rather than a recession.


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