Share

Leading indicators and tendency surveys

Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), OECD, December 2021

 

OECD CLIs Point More Firmly Towards an Upcoming Peak in Growth

 

Download the entire news release (graphs and tables included - PDF)

9 Dec 2021 - The OECD Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue to suggest that economic growth in the OECD area as a whole may reach a peak in the coming months.

The latest CLIs reaffirm last month’s assessment which showed signs of a possible upcoming peak in the growth of economic activity in the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom. Similar signals have now emerged in Canada and the euro area as a whole, including Italy. However, in France, the CLI is pointing to a continuation in growth, albeit at a moderating pace.

Among major emerging-market economies, the CLIs continue to anticipate growth losing momentum in China (industrial sector). In India, the CLI indicates stable growth while in Brazil, the outlook continues to deteriorate with the CLI now contracting to below trend levels. By contrast, the CLI for Russia continues to point to a steady increase in growth above long-term trends.

The OECD composite leading indicators, which include order books, building permits, confidence indicators, long-term interest rates, new car registrations and many more, are cyclical indicators designed to anticipate fluctuations in economic activity over the next six to nine months. They paint a broad picture of economic activity based on a large amount of recent forward-looking data.

Persisting uncertainties stemming largely from recent developments in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic may result in higher than usual fluctuations in the CLI and its components. As such, the CLIs should be interpreted with care and their magnitude should be regarded as an indication of the strength of the signal rather than a precise measure of anticipated growth in economic activity.

 

‌‌OECD area: Possible peak‌‌

Visit the interactive OECD Data Portal to explore this data further.

> Access data:

 

Watch our video explaining how
the Composite Leading Indicators are compiled
  

Please note that in the video “business cycle” should be understood as the growth cycle (deviation to trend), and that the term “recession” should be understood as an economic slowdown rather than a recession.

 

 Do you need help with our data? Please consult:

 

‌  

@OECD_STAT

 

Related Documents