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Leading indicators and tendency surveys

Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), OECD, December 2020

 

CLIs show a mixed picture across the major economies

 

Download the entire news release (PDF 900 KB)

08/12/2020 - The OECD Composite leading indicators (CLIs) continue to recover from the COVID-19 crisis lows in most major economies, but the rate of change differs across countries.

In the United States, Japan and Canada, the CLIs point to stable growth. In France, Italy, and more tentatively Germany, the CLIs show signs of moderating growth. In the United Kingdom, where there is heightened uncertainty around the prospect of a trade deal with the EU being concluded before the end of the year, the CLI contracted for the third straight month.

Among major emerging economies, the CLI for the manufacturing sector of China is improving steadily. This is also now the assessment for Brazil. In India, the CLI continues to rise but at a moderating pace, while in Russia growth of the CLI has stabilised.

Whilst the impact of renewed COVID-19 containment measures has been largely incorporated into the forward-looking indicators used to construct the CLI estimates, the more recent positive news concerning vaccine developments may not be. As such, this month’s CLIs should continue to be interpreted with care.

 

Visit the interactive OECD Data Portal to explore this data further.

The above graph show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs solid line, left axis and the relative month-on-month growth rate, right axis). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by six to nine months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed

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the Composite Leading Indicators are compiled
  

Please note that in the video “business cycle” should be understood as the growth cycle (deviation to trend), and that the term “recession” should be understood as an economic slowdown rather than a recession.

 

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