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Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), OECD, September 2021

 

CLIs point to moderating growth

 

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14 September 2021 - The OECD Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, indicate that growth remains at above-trend levels but is moderating in the OECD area as a whole.

Among the major OECD economies, the signs of a moderating growth at above-trend levels, flagged in last month’s assessment, have been confirmed in Canada, the euro area as a whole, including Germany and Italy,and in the United Kingdom. In France the CLI points to a moderation in the pace of growth and remains below trend levels. In contrast, the CLIs for the United States and Japan now point to stable growth above trend levels.

Among the major emerging-market economies, the CLIs for Russia and China point to a steady increase in growth above trend levels. The CLI for India remains below trend but continues to signal stable growth, whereas in Brazil the CLI continues to anticipate slowing growth from above trend level.

Despite the gradual lifting of COVID-19 containment measures in some countries and the progress of vaccination campaigns, persisting uncertainties might result in higher than usual fluctuations in the CLIs and their components. As such, the CLIs should be interpreted with care and their magnitude should be regarded as an indication of the strength of the signal rather than as a measure of the degree of growth in economic activity.

 

OECD area: Moderating growth‌‌‌

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The OECD Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, indicate that growth remains at above-trend levels but is moderating in the OECD area as a whole.

Among the major OECD economies, the signs of a moderating growth at above-trend levels, flagged in last month’s assessment, have been confirmed in Canada, the euro area as a whole, including Germany and Italy,and in the United Kingdom. In France the CLI points to a moderation in the pace of growth and remains below trend levels. In contrast, the CLIs for the United States and Japan now point to stable growth above trend levels.

Among the major emerging-market economies, the CLIs for Russia and China point to a steady increase in growth above trend levels. The CLI for India remains below trend but continues to signal stable growth, whereas in Brazil the CLI continues to anticipate slowing growth from above trend level.

Despite the gradual lifting of COVID-19 containment measures in some countries and the progress of vaccination campaigns, persisting uncertainties might result in higher than usual fluctuations in the CLIs and their components. As such, the CLIs should be interpreted with care and their magnitude should be regarded as an indication of the strength of the signal rather than as a measure of the degree of growth in economic activity

 

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