Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), OECD, May 2021


CLIs increase at a steady pace in most major economies


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11 May 2021 - The OECD Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, point to a steady expansion in the OECD area as a whole and in most major economies.

Among large OECD economies outside Europe, the CLIs for the United States, Japan and Canada continue to expand at a steady pace. In Europe, the CLIs for the euro area as a whole, including Germany and Italy continue to point to a steady increase, but in the United Kingdom and France, the CLIs anticipate stable growth.

Among major emerging economies, the CLIs for Russia and for the industrial sector in China point to steady increases, as previously, whereas in India the pace of expansion of the CLI is now moderating. In Brazil, the CLI continues to point to slowing growth.

Despite the gradual lifting of COVID-19 containment measures in some countries and the progress of vaccination campaigns, persisting uncertainties might result in higher than usual fluctuations in the CLI and its components. As such, the CLIs should be interpreted with care and their magnitude should be regarded as an indication of the strength of the signal rather than as a measure of the degree of growth in economic activity.


Visit the interactive OECD Data Portal to explore this data further.

The above graph show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs solid line, left axis and the relative month-on-month growth rate, right axis). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by six to nine months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed

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Please note that in the video “business cycle” should be understood as the growth cycle (deviation to trend), and that the term “recession” should be understood as an economic slowdown rather than a recession.


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