Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), OECD, April 2021


CLIs continue to strengthen in most major economies

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13 April 2021 - The OECD Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue to strengthen in most major economies.

In the United States, the CLI continues to increase at a steady pace, driven an expansion in the consumer confidence. In Japan, Canada and the euro-area as a whole, particularly in Germany and Italy, the CLIs now point to a steady increase. In France, and now the United Kingdom, the CLIs signal stable growth.

Among major emerging economies, the CLIs for India, Russia and the manufacturing sector of China continue to expand at a steady pace, but in Brazil the CLI points to slowing growth.

The CLIs should continue to be interpreted with care as the changing measures to contain Covid-19 and the progress of vaccination campaigns are likely to engender higher than usual fluctuations in the underlying components and result in possible revisions. As always, the magnitude of CLI should be regarded as an indication of the strength of the signal rather than as a measure of the degree of growth in economic activity.

Visit the interactive OECD Data Portal to explore this data further.

The above graph show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs solid line, left axis and the relative month-on-month growth rate, right axis). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by six to nine months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed

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Please note that in the video “business cycle” should be understood as the growth cycle (deviation to trend), and that the term “recession” should be understood as an economic slowdown rather than a recession.


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