Averting Systemic Collapse

17-18 Sept 2019

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The New Approaches to Economic Challenges (NAEC) Initiative, established to distill the lessons from the Global Financial Crisis has suggested that a new crisis could emerge suddenly, from many different sources, and with potentially harmful effects. OECD Member and Partner countries are confronting multiple challenges that can only be addressed through effective analytical, governance and policy approaches. This Conference discussed these approaches to better understand and respond to the interconnections between financial, economic, environmental and societal systems. While policymakers generally focus on how to harden components of these systems affected by specific threats, such approaches do not often address cascading effects. Notably, this includes systemic risks, which result from the threat that individual failures, accidents, or disruptions present to a system through the process of contagion.

Systemic threats are a particular challenge to governments due to their stochastic and relatively low frequency nature. This leads to the likelihood of systemic or cascading effects that are difficult to model and analyse with traditional tools of economic analysis. Such cascades, if not mitigated or checked, have the capability of triggering systematic degradation or collapse from which it is difficult or impossible to fully recover. When they emerge, systemic threats have the potential to completely and irreversibly disrupt the original configuration of a given system – replacing it with something altogether new, albeit significantly degraded.

This conference explored the latest scientific findings and policies on the extent to which stressed and strained complex systems could be placed on a sounder footing through strengthened buffers, safeguards and systemic resilience. Discussion centred on new approaches to economic theory and policy, new tools and techniques to understand systems and strategies to address systemic threats. A variety of new approaches to environmental, social and economic issues were explored. The debates were enriched by the contributions of experts from a range of disciplines, including economics, political science, engineering, physics, and biology.

> For external participants : [email protected]

> For OECD staff: Register

> Watch the webcast:
Conference (17 Sept) am / pm
Conference (18 Sept) am / pm

> Agenda (pdf) / Ordre du jour (pdf)

> Summary (pdf)

> Speaker biographies (pdf)

> Logistical note (pdf)

17 September 2019


Opening remarks
9:30-10:00	Gabriela Ramos, OECD Chief of Staff and Sherpa Laurence Boone, OECD Chief Economist Martine Durand, OECD Chief Statistician
Session 1: Beyond Growth: Towards a New Economic Approach
10:00-12:00	Moderator: Gabriela Ramos, OECD Chief of Staff and Sherpa Speakers: Michael Jacobs, Professorial Research Fellow, Sheffield Political Economy Research Institute (SPERI) Beyond Growth (pdf) Mariana Mazzucato, Professor of Innovation and Public Value at University College London (UCL) and Director of the Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose Dennis J. Snower, Founder and President, Global Solutions Initiative Rachel Griffith, President of the Royal Economics Society, Professor of Economics at the University of Manchester and Research Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) in London Discussants: Konrad Pesendorfer, Chair of the Committee on Statistics and Statistical Policy (CSSP) Manfred Schekulin, Chair of the Investment Committee (INV) Publication: Report of the Secretary General’s Advisory Group on a New Growth Narrative: Beyond Growth: Towards a New Economic Approach ιι Au-delà de la croissance : vers une nouvelle approche économique
Session 2: New Analytical Tools and Techniques
12:00-13:00	Moderator: Laurence Boone, OECD Chief Economist Speakers: Marc Mezard, Director of the Ecole normale supérieure Interacting heterogeneous agents and phase transitions: a few hints from statistical physics (pdf) Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Chairman, Capital Fund Management (CFM) and Rebuilding Macroeconomics Systemic Collapse: Insights from Interacting Agent Based Models (pdf) Alan Kirman, Chief Advisor to the NAEC Initiative *Averting Systemic Collapse* (pdf) New Analytical Tools and Techniques to Better Understand Systems ιι De nouveaux outils et techniques d’analyse pour mieux comprendre les systèmes
Session 3: Systems Thinking, Anticipation and Resilience: Averting Systemic Collapse
15:00-17:30	Chair: Martin Lees, Chair of the OECD-IIASA Task Force on Systems Thinking, Anticipation and Resilience Keynote speaker: Angel Gurria, OECD Secretary-General *Systems Thinking, Anticipation and Resilience: Averting Sytemic Collapse* Albert van Jaarsveld, Director General and Chief Executive Officer, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Systems thinking and a sustainable future: avoiding systemic collapse (pdf) Doug Erwin, Senior Scientist and Curator of Paleobiology at the National Museum of Natural History of the Smithsonian Institution, and Santa Fé Institute *The Collapse of Ecosystems* (pdf) Jean-Marc Jancovici, Co-founder and Partner of Carbone 4, Associate Professor at École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris Averting systemic collapse… or managing it? (pdf) Barry C. Lynn, Executive Director, Open Markets Institute Built to Break - Global Systems in the New Era of Monopoly (pdf) Igor Linkov, Risk and Decision Science Team Lead, US Army Engineer Research and Development Center Systemic Collapse and Resilience (pdf) Discussants: Susanna Moorehead, Chair of the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) Svein Gjedrem, Chair of the Economic and Development Review Committee (EDRC) Publications: IIASA-OECD draft publication: FINAL VERSION TO BE PUBLISHED ON 27 FEBRUARY 2020 Systemic Thinking for Policy Making - The Potential of Systems Analysis for Addressing Global Policy Challenges in the 21^st Century La pensée systémique au service de l’élaboration des politiques publiques - Le potentiel de l’analyse systémique face aux enjeux mondiaux du XXI^e siècle NAEC Report on Resilience Strategies and Approaches to Contain Systemic Threats Face aux menaces systémiques, des stratégies et des approches fondées sur la résilience
Session 4: Remarks from Committee Chairs and Ambassadors
17:30-18:00
Noam Chomsky Address on Systemic Collapse at the Conference Dinner
Transcript of recording (pdf)

18 September 2019


Opening
9:30-10:00	Keynote speaker: Angel Gurria, OECD Secretary-General *New Approaches to Environmental, Social and Economic Challenges*
Session 5: New Approaches to Environmental Challenges
10:00-12:30	Chair: Leslie Harroun, Director, Partners for a New Economy Speakers: Jean-Marc Jancovici, Co-founder and Partner of Carbone 4, Associate Professor at École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris Averting systemic collapse… or managing it? (environment) (pdf) Steve Keen, Professor and Distinguished Research Fellow at the the, Institute for Strategy, Resilience & Security (ISRS) of University College London Flawed Approaches (and a New Approach) to Environmental Challenges (pdf) Francois Lafond, Senior Research Officer, Institute for New Economic Thinking, University of Oxford What do we learn from the long-run evolution of technological systems? (pdf) Sony Kapoor, Managing Director Re-Define Discussants: Lučka Kajfež-Bogataj, Chair of Agrometeorology, Agricultural Land Management, University of Ljubljana Rodolfo Lacy, Director of the OECD Environment Directorate
Session 6: New Approaches to Social Challenges
14:00-16:00	Moderator: Kenneth Swinnerton, Chair of the Employment, Labour and Social Affairs Committee (ELSAC) Speakers: Mark Blyth, Political Economist, Watson Institute, Brown University Social Challenges, Party Politics and Systemic Resilience (pdf) Rachel Griffith, President of the Royal Economics Society, Professor of Economics at the University of Manchester and Research Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) in London Concerns about rising inequalities (pdf) Discussant: Michael Jacobs, Professorial Research Fellow in the Sheffield Political Economy Research Institute (SPERI) and principal author of the report of the Secretary-General’s Advisory Group
Session 7: Understanding the New Economy
16:00-17:30	Moderator: Megan Greene, Senior Fellow at Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at the Harvard Kennedy School Speakers: Barry C. Lynn, Executive Director, Open Markets Institute Dennis J. Snower, Founder and President, Global Solutions Initiative William White, Economist, former Chair of the Economic Development Review Committee (EDRC) Understanding the New Economy (pdf) Discussants: Andràs Hlàcs, Vice-Chair of the Committee on Digital Economy Policy (CDEP) Thierry Lange, Chair of the Committee on Industry, Innovation and Entrepreneurship (CIIE)
Closing remarks
17:30	Irena Sodin, Ambassador to the OECD, Permanent Representative of Slovenia Erdem Basci, Ambassador to the OECD, Permanent Representative of Turkey Gabriela Ramos, OECD Chief of Staff and Sherpa