The intergovernmental fiscal outlook and the implications of Russia’s war against
Ukraine, high energy prices and inflation
Less than two years after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s illegal, unprovoked
and unjustifiable war of aggression against Ukraine has triggered the biggest military
confrontation in Europe since World War II. Many OECD countries have reacted to Russia’s
aggression by providing military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine and by imposing economic
sanctions on Russia, which has accentuated supply chain disruptions, especially in
the energy sector. A combination of these supply shocks with a demand shock caused
by expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to tackle the pandemic has created inflationary
pressures on a scale not seen in decades. Central banks around the world are acting
to fulfil their price stability mandates by increasing interest rates and by engaging
in quantitative tightening (primarily the selling of government bonds to reduce central
bank balance sheets), all of which put pressure on borrowing costs at a time when
governments are engaging in expansionary fiscal policy to alleviate the impact of
inflation. The objective of this policy note is to examine the main consequences of
this challenging environment for the fiscal stance of different levels of governments.
These include the weakening outlook for government revenues in times of high expenditure
pressures from a more rapid energy transition as well as high borrowing costs.
Available from January 05, 2023
In series:OECD Working Papers on Fiscal Federalismview more titles