The tortoise and the hare: The race between vaccine rollout and new COVID variants
New variants of the virus are spreading which, together with seasonal effects, are
estimated to be able to raise effective reproduction numbers by up to 90%. Meanwhile,
many countries are rolling out vaccination programmes, but at varying speeds. Hence
the race is on to beat the variants with the vaccines. Vaccination is very powerful
at reducing virus transmission: fully vaccinating 20% of the population is estimated
to have the same effect as closing down public transport and all-but-essential workplaces;
fully vaccinating 50% of the population would have a larger effect than simultaneously
applying all forms of containment policies in their most extreme form (closure of
workplaces, public transport and schools, restrictions on travel and gatherings and
stay-at-home requirements). For a typical OECD country, relaxing existing containment
policies would be expected to raise GDP by about 4-5%. Quick vaccination would thus
help limit the extent to which containment policies need to be escalated in future
epidemic waves, providing huge welfare benefits both in terms of fewer infections
and stronger economic activity.
Published on June 11, 2021
In series:OECD Economics Department Working Papersview more titles