Portugal

There is a growing international concern about the slowdown in productivity growth, especially as labor productivity enhancements are important drivers of higher generalised living standards. Using administrative data of firms in Portugal between 2010 and 2016, we analyse the relationships between productivity and wages. At odds with neoclassical theory of marginal productivity of labor, we find that two thirds of firms insufficiently raised wages given observed productivity growth. Employing unconditional quantile regressions, we investigate some quantifiable determinants of the productivity-wage gap at different parts of the distributions. Most of the documented dynamics contributed not only to the divergence of productivity and wages but also to the decoupling of productivity and wage growth. We argue that labor market flexibilisation intensified segmentation, providing incentives for non standard contracts. Both dimensions, as well as higher board compensations, international trade and on-the-job training weakened the link between productivity and wages.

In this paper, we focus on the managerial characteristics of micro and small-sized firms. Using linked employer-employee data on the Portuguese economy for the 2010-2018 period, we estimate the impact of management teams’ human capital on the probability of firms becoming financially distressed and their subsequent recovery. Our estimates show that the relevance of management teams’ formal education on the probability of firms becoming financially distressed depends on firms’ size and the type of education. We show that management teams’ formal education and tenure reduce the probability of micro and small-sized firms becoming financially distressed and increases the probability of their subsequent recovery. The estimates also suggest that those impacts are stronger for micro and small-sized firms. Additionally, our results show that functional experience previously acquired in other firms, namely in foreign-owned and in exporting firms and in the area of finance, may reduce the probability of micro firms becoming financially distressed. On the other hand, previous functional experience in other firms seems to have a strong and highly significant impact on increasing the odds of recovery of financially distressed firms. We conclude that policies that induce an improvement in the managerial human capital of micro and small-sized firms have significant scope to improve their financial condition, enhancing the economy’s resilience against shocks.

Ce rapport est une édition spéciale du Tableau de bord de l’OCDE sur le financement des PME et des entrepreneurs, publication phare de l’OCDE. Il examine en détail les conséquences du COVID-19 sur l’accès des PME au financement, ainsi que les mesures prises en conséquence par les pouvoirs publics. Il apparaît qu’avant la crise, les conditions de financement étaient globalement favorables pour les PME et les entrepreneurs, qui bénéficiaient de faibles taux d’intérêt, de critères accommodants d’octroi des crédits et d’une offre de plus en plus diversifiée d’instruments de financement. Mais la crise du COVID‑19 a profondément bouleversé l’accès des PME au financement. Plus particulièrement, l’effondrement brutal du chiffre d’affaires des entreprises a provoqué de graves pénuries de liquidités qui ont mis en danger la survie de bon nombre d’entreprises viables. Ce rapport fait état d’une augmentation de la demande de prêts bancaires au cours du premier semestre de 2020, et d’une stabilité de l’offre de crédit grâce à l’action des pouvoirs publics. Parallèlement, on a observé un recul d’autres sources de financement, en particulier l’apport de fonds propres au stade du démarrage. Le rapport réunit des données sur le périmètre et l’ampleur des mesures prises par les gouvernements dans le monde, et en précise les principales caractéristiques. Il décrit les principaux enjeux stratégiques du financement des PME qui se poseront au cours des prochaines phases de la pandémie ; il s’agira en effet d’éviter le surendettement des PME, de promouvoir une gamme diversifiée d’instruments de financement, de stimuler la création d’entreprises et de renforcer la résilience des PME par des mesures structurelles.

Portugal has notably increased its international openness over recent decades, with exports’ share of GDP rising by 20 percentage points since 1993. This analysis couples microdata with panel regression techniques to investigate the drivers of Portuguese export growth over the 1995-2016 period. The results highlight that there was no one single factor behind the export expansion. While an improvement in price competitiveness played a significant role, the majority of the increase in exports was explained by other factors. These include increases in the quality of export products and weak domestic demand that prompted firms to increase their focus on foreign markets. The empirical results also suggest that the restoration of the health of the Portuguese financial sector and its further development is beneficial for export growth.

This review provides policy recommendations on how to improve the Portuguese pension system, building on the OECD’s best practices in pension design. It details the Portuguese pension system and identifies its strengths and weaknesses based on cross-country comparisons. The Portuguese pension system consists of an old-age safety net, a pay-as-you-go defined benefit scheme and voluntary private savings. The safety net includes an old-age social pension and a complement (the so-called Complemento Solidário para Idosos or CSI), both of which pursue similar objectives but have different eligibility criteria. The defined benefit scheme has two main components: the general social security scheme (regime geral da Segurança Social) and the civil-servant pension scheme (Caixa Geral de Aposentações or CGA). The latter has been closed to new entrants since 2006 with new civil servants contributing to the general scheme. Funded voluntary pensions make up a very small share of total pension entitlements. The OECD Reviews of Pension Systems: Portugal is the fourth in the series, after Ireland (2014), Mexico (2016) and Latvia (2018), with a fifth review on Peru under preparation. 

Raising skills is critical to Portugal’s economic success and social well-being. As globalisation and digitalisation are transforming how people work, how societies function and how individuals interact, Portugal needs to equip its entire population with strong skills so that they can benefit from new opportunities. Portugal has put education and skills at the forefront of the political agenda for many years, but more than half of adults have not completed upper secondary education. With the population ageing rapidly and a growing skills divide between generations, Portugal needs to further strengthen its adult-learning system. To make change happen, Portugal will need a clear vision for the adult-learning system and a strong partnership between all stakeholders – all levels of government, education and training providers, employers, trade unions, the non-profit sector and learners. This report outlines areas where the accessibility, flexibility and quality of the adult-learning system can be improved, where governance and financing mechanisms can be strengthened, and provides examples of international and national good practice to help achieve these objectives. The report provides a series of concrete actions to help Portugal improve the adult-learning system and in turn enhance economic growth and social cohesion.