GHG emission growth: By 2030 world GHG emissions are projected to grow by 37% and by 52% to 2050 (compared to 2005 levels), if no new policy action is introduced (i.e. under the OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline).
OECD emissions: Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from OECD countries would be expected to increase by 23% by 2030 and by 26% to 2050.
BRIC emissions: GHG emissions from these 4 rapidly industrialising countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are expected to grow by 46% to 2030, and in total would roughly equal emissions from the 30 OECD countries combined by 2030.
With no new policies, world GDP is expected to double (grow by nearly 100%) to 2030 and to triple in size to 2050. But it would only cost about 0.5% of that GDP in 2030, and 2.5% in 2050, to achieve the ambitious climate goal of stabilising GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at 450ppm. Under an optimal scenario (i.e. using least-cost policies, starting immediately, with all countries and sectors participating), this could be achieved using a global tax on all GHG emissions starting at just over 2 US$ per tonne of CO2-equivalent, and increasing to over 150 US$ per tonne in 2050.
Agriculture will continue to be the source of greatest pressure on biodiversity at the global level to 2030. To meet increasing demands for food and biofuels, world agricultural land use will need to expand by an estimated 10% to 2030.
Unless new policies are put in place, the area of mature forests would decrease by a further 68% in South Asia, 26% in China, 24% in Africa and by about 20% in Eastern Europe, Australia and New Zealand by 2030. This translates to more than 1.2 million km2 of mature forests lost in Africa in this timeframe.
Air pollutants linked to respiratory illnesses: Without new policy, the number of premature deaths per million inhabitants caused by ground-level ozone would quadruple worldwide by 2030 compared to today’s levels.
The number of premature deaths per million inhabitants linked to PM10 (fine particulates) could double to 2030 per million inhabitants, increasing to over 3 million premature deaths per year, and with an estimated loss of more than 25 million years of life (i.e. Disability Adjusted Life Years – DALYs) in 2030.
Almost half the world population (47%) will be living under severe water stress by 2030 if no new policies are introduced. That is over one billion more people under severe water stress in 2030 than today (absolute numbers will increase from 2.8 to 3.9 billion people).
Most of these people will be living in developing countries. Already 63% of the population in Brazil, Russia India and China together are living under medium to severe water stress; this share will increase to 80% by 2030 if no new measures to better manage water resources are introduced. .