Turkey Economic Snapshot

Economic Forecast Summary (May 2021)

In the absence of further major shocks, GDP growth is projected to be 5.7% in 2021 before easing to 3.4% in 2022. Following significant but unsustainable quasi-fiscal stimulus, changes to more sustainable macroeconomic policies late in 2020 were altered at the end of the first quarter of 2021, disrupting market sentiment and expectations. The surge in infections which appears to have peaked in May, new confinement measures and the gradual phasing out of job retention schemes will affect employment, incomes and private consumption from the second quarter of 2021.

Reform Priorities (April 2021)

Going for Growth 2021 - Turkey

For a more inclusive and sustained recovery structural challenges such as low labour force participation of women, widespread informality, weak skills, rigid employment rules hampering reallocation and large share of low-quality employment have to be addressed. The COVID-19 related contraction in economic activity affected informal workers the hardest, as many work in contact-intensive services such as tourism, catering and retail trade.

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2021 Structural Reform Priorities

  • Labour market: Reduce the cost of employment of the low skilled
  • Education and skills: Improve quality and equity of educational achievement at all levels
  • Labour market: Reform employment protection legislation and strengthen active labour market policies, addressing the informal sector
  • Competition and regulation: Ease administrative burdens, price regulations and barriers to foreign investment and cross-border service trade
  • Environmental policy: Address environmental pressures caused by population growth, urbanisation, road transportation and expansion of coal power production


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Economic Survey of Turkey (14 January 2021)

Executive Summary