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This paper explores the relationship between policy settings and extreme positive and negative growth events, what we call GDP tail risks, using quantile regression methods.
This paper firstly describes the role of models in producing OECD global macroeconomic forecasts; secondly, reviews the OECD's forecasting track record; and finally, considers the relationship between forecast performance and models.
How was it possible not to see the Great Recession of 2008-09 coming? How could economic forecasters blindly ignore financial developments? These are typical questions asked by the media in the wake of the Great Recession.
This paper seeks to provide up to date financial conditions indices for six countries, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States, as well as the euro area, updating earlier results by the OECD.
World trade growth was rapid in the two decades prior to the global financial crisis but has halved subsequently.
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Cardiac arrest or dizzy spell: why is world trade so weak and what can policy do about it?
This paper compares the short-term forecasting performance of state-of-the-art large-scale dynamic factor models (DFMs) and the small-scale bridge models routinely used at the OECD.
The Greek economy is turning around lately, but it remains in a deep depression. GDP has fallen by more than a quarter between 2007 and 2015, unemployment remains extremely high at 25 percent and anchored poverty – which measures poverty relative to its pre-crisis income level – has nearly tripled between 2007 and 2014, reaching a third of the population.
Concerns around weak productivity growth are everywhere these days. As the latest OECD Economic Outlook notes, since the mid-2000s, productivity growth has been markedly lower than at any other time since the 1950s.
The ECB, the Bank of Japan and five other central banks in Europe have applied negative interest rates on commercial banks’ reserves. This additional monetary policy stimulus, following large asset purchases by central banks in some of these areas, should boost the economy and thus raise inflation closer to target.