OECD Economic Outlook November 2018
Watch the press conference (November 2018)
Documents
- Download the presentation with summary of projections
- Growth has peaked: Challenges in engineering a soft landing, Editorial
- Press Release
General Assessment of the Macroeconomic Situation
The expansion is set to persist over the next two years, with global GDP projected to rise by close to 4% in 2018 and 2019. Growth in the OECD area is set to remain around 2½ per cent per annum, helped by fiscal easing in many economies, and will strengthen to close to 5% elsewhere.
Projections by Country (Country Notes)
En español y portugues: textos seleccionados
Slideshow
descardar
Evaluación general
> Evaluación general de la situación économica
La expansión mundial ha tocado techo. Se prevé que el crecimiento del PIB mundial disminuya progresivamente del 3,7% en 2018 al entorno del 3½ por ciento en 2019 y 2020, globalmente en línea con el crecimiento potencial subyacente de la producción mundial. A corto plazo, las políticas adoptadas y el fuerte crecimiento del empleo siguen sosteniendo la demanda interna. Sin embargo, las previsiones prevén políticas macroeconómicas cada vez menos acomodaticias, dificultades derivadas de las tensiones comerciales, condiciones financieras más restrictivas y precios del petróleo más elevados.
Decoupling of wages from productivity: what implications for public policies?
Several OECD countries have been grappling not only with slow productivity growth but have additionally experienced a slowdown in real average wage growth relative to productivity growth, which has been reflected in a falling share of wages in GDP. At the same time, growth in low and middle wages has been lagging behind average wage growth, contributing to rising wage inequality. Together, these developments have resulted in the decoupling of growth in low and middle wages from growth in productivity.
Decoupling of wages from productivity: What implications for public policies? (pdf)
Findings
- On average across 24 OECD countries, real median wage growth has decoupled from productivity growth, but there are large differences across countries.
- Global developments in technology and trade have put downward pressure on real median wages relative to productivity, but domestic policies and institutions may explain large differences in decoupling across countries.
- There is some evidence for “winner-takes-most” dynamics as labour shares at the technological frontier have decreased and between-firm wage dispersion has increased.
Policy lessons
- Raising skills is key to reconnect median wages with productivity as higher skilled workers do not compete head-on with machines.
- Active labour market policies play a useful role in keeping people connected to the job market.
- Pro-competition reforms promote the sharing of productivity gains by reducing excess profits and raising real wages.
- Well designed minimum wages and employment protection can help to reduce wage inequality but risk reducing employment if set too high.
Significant decoupling in the OECD...
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...but large differences across countries...
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...that partly reflects differences in firm dynamics...
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...as well as public policies and institutions
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Statistical Annex
Compare your country: Data visualisation
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Previous releases
| Interim Global Economic Outlook Assessment, September 2018 |
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Global Economic Outlook, May 2018 General assessment of the macroeconomic situation |
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Global Economic Outlook November 2017 General assessment of the macroeconomic situation |
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Global Economic Outlook, June 2017 General assessment of the macroeconomic situation |
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Global Economic Outlook, November 2016 General assessment of the macroeconomic situation |
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Global Economic Outlook, June 2016 General assessment of the macroeconomic situation |
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Global Economic Outlook, November 2015 General assessment of the macroeconomic situation |
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Global Economic Outlook, June 2015 General assessment of the macroeconomic situation |
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Global Economic Outlook, November 2014 General assessment of the macroeconomic situation Versions prior to November 2014 can be found here. |
>> See also Economic Policy Papers, produced in the context of the work carried out on the two regular titles, and Going for Growth.