Economic outlook, analysis and forecasts

Australia - Economic forecast summary (June 2016)


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Output growth will gradually strengthen towards 3% in 2017. Adjustment to declining resource-sector investment will continue. Growth in the non-resource sector will pick up, aided by dollar depreciation and a steady increase in household consumption. Further falls in the rate of unemployment are not expected to generate strong inflationary pressures and will help reduce inequality.

With receding risks from the housing boom, there is leeway for further monetary policy easing in the event of a new downturn. Close vigilance on housing-market developments is still required. Fiscal consolidation should be back-loaded in light of economic uncertainties. Tax reform should be a core element of structural policy.

Boosting productivity in Australia requires a focus on innovation. Targeted R&D policy, university-business linkages and effectiveness and efficiency of financial support for research are important. Ensuring strong competition, regulation that accommodates new internet-platform-based businesses, sound ICT infrastructure and continuing education reform are also key for productivity performance. In addition, education reform will boost inclusiveness through stronger low-end skills and better ICT infrastructure can reduce gaps in economic opportunity by improving access in rural areas.

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