What are the forces shaping the global economic outlook for the next half century? How will the economic landscape change? How should policies adjust to cope with this change? This study identifies the following main challenges for the next 50 years:

• Sustaining growth while addressing rising inequality

• Stepping up international cooperation in an increasingly multipolar world 

• Addressing emerging policy trade-offs

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Key findings

The global economic balance will continue to shift towards the current non-OECD area, whose economic structure and exports will increasingly resemble those of the OECD.

Global growth will slow from 3.6% in 2010-2020 to 2.4% in 2050-2060 and will be increasingly driven by innovation and investment in skills.

Due to the rising economic importance of knowledge that will tend to raise returns to skills, by 2060 pre-tax earnings inequality in the OECD area may reach the level of today’s most unequal OECD countries.

Climate change will curb global GDP by 1.5% on average and almost 6% in South and South-East Asia before 2060, unless increases in CO2 emissions are curbed.