Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), OECD, September 2022


Leading indicators continue to point to weakening growth in most major economies


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12 Sept 2022 - The OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity over the next six to nine months, continue to signal a slowdown in most major economies and in the OECD area as a whole.

Among large OECD economies, the CLIs continue to anticipate a loss of growth momentum in Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States, as well as in the euro area as a whole including France, Germany and Italy. Stable growth continues to be expected in Japan.

Among major emerging-market economies, the CLI for China (industrial sector) now points to a loss in growth momentum. In India, the CLI continues to indicate stable growth whereas in Brazil it signals growth losing momentum.

The OECD CLIs are cyclical indicators based on a range of forward-looking indicators such as order books, building permits, confidence indicators, long-term interest rates, new car registrations and many more. Most of these monthly indicators are available up to August 2022.

In the face of persisting uncertainties related to the war in Ukraine, renewed COVID-19 threats, and the impact of high inflation on real household income, the CLI components might be subject to larger-than-usual fluctuations. As a result, the indicators should be interpreted with care and their magnitude be regarded as an indication of the strength of the signal rather than as a measure of growth in economic activity.

‌‌‌‌‌‌Leading indicators continue to point to weakening growth in most major economies

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the Composite Leading Indicators are compiled

Please note that in the video “business cycle” should be understood as the growth cycle (deviation to trend), and that the term “recession” should be understood as an economic slowdown rather than a recession.


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