Focus on the global economy

The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered the deepest economic recession in nearly a century, threatening health, disrupting economic activity, and hurting well-being and jobs. Extraordinary policies are required to walk the tightrope towards recovery, which will shape the economic and social prospects of the coming decade.

This page features the latest OECD data, recommendations and policy advice regarding the economic impact of COVID-19, as well as a curated collection of earlier OECD economic content.

 

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16/09/2020

Building confidence amid an uncertain recovery

With the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to threaten jobs, businesses and the health and well-being of millions, building confidence will be crucial to ensure that economies recover and adapt.

The Interim Economic Outlook projects global GDP to fall by 4½ per cent this year, before growing by 5% in 2021. Output in many countries at the end of 2021 will be below 2019 levels, and well below projections prior to the crisis.

> OECD interim ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
10/06/2020

Living with Covid-19: Two scenarios for the world economy

In the face of extreme uncertainty, the OECD’s Economic Outlook presents two possible scenarios: one where the virus continues to recede and remains under control, and one where a second wave of rapid contagion erupts later in 2020. With or without a second wave, the effects of the coronavirus will be severe.

> WATCH THE VIDEO (2:30)

Living with Covid-19: Two scenarios for the world economy

23/04/2020

Covid-19 shock: What lessons can we learn for competition and global markets?

The Covid-19 pandemic has shocked our world. Our healthcare systems are under intense pressure, and the economy is suffering badly too, with stalling trade and investment, and massive job losses adding to human suffering. We talk to Frederic Jenny, Professor of Economics at ESSEC Business School in Paris and chair of the OECD Competition Committee.

> LISTEN TO PODCAST (11:04)

Covid-19 shock: What lessons can we learn for competition and global markets?

See our latest policy advice

This new series brings together data, analysis and recommendations on a range of topics related to the impacts of the coronavirus (COVID-19) on the global economy.

Access to all policy responses

COVID-19 crisis response in Eastern Partner countries

The impact of the Covid-19 crisis on public health in the six EU Eastern Partner (EaP) countries remains limited with 187 reported fatalities in the region as of 14 April. Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia (because...
13/10/2020
> read

E-commerce in the time of COVID-19

This brief discusses how the COVID-19 crisis is accelerating an expansion of e-commerce towards new firms, customers and types of products, likely involving a long-term shift of e-commerce transactions from luxury goods and services to...
07/10/2020
> read

Biodiversity and the economic response to COVID-19: Ensuring a green and resilient recovery

This Policy Brief focuses on the vital role of biodiversity for human life and the importance of integrating biodiversity considerations into the recovery from the COVID-19 crisis. The Brief first outlines how biodiversity loss is...
28/09/2020
> read

Responding to the COVID-19 and pandemic protection gap in insurance

The COVID-19 pandemic and the measures taken to limit the spread of the disease have significantly disrupted economic activity in countries around the world, resulting in significant business interruption losses. The vast majority of these...
09/09/2020
> read

Discover other original data visualisations related to the COVID-19 crisis in Data Insights

Browse all related resources

This inventory focuses on the global economy, pulling together analysis and data directly and indirectly related to the broad and far-reaching economic challenges arising in the context of the coronavirus (COVID-19). From productivity and income redistribution to tourism and SMEs, this collection brings together a broad range of policies to promote sustainable economic growth and build resilience for an inclusive and green recovery.

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15/10/2020
Report
Broad-based Innovation Policy for All Regions and Cities
This publication summarises the main findings of a series of high-level expert workshops, organised with support by the European Commission, to deepen the understanding how OECD countries can move towards a broad‑based form of innovation policy for regions and cities. Weaknesses in technology and knowledge diffusion are weighing on productivity growth and innovation in OECD countries, particularly in firms that are distant from the technological frontier (global or national). This in turn weakens their capacity to meet future challenges and undermines inclusive growth.This report examines where current tools for innovation policy are too narrowly focused, targeting mainly research and development as well as science and technology-based interventions. It seeks to help empower firms to benefit from global trends and technological change, in order to better adapt to the different capacity and innovation eco‑systems across regions and cities.
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14/10/2020
Report
Tax Challenges Arising from Digitalisation – Report on Pillar Two Blueprint
The OECD/G20 Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) Project aims to create a single set of consensus-based international tax rules to address BEPS, and hence to protect tax bases while offering increased certainty and predictability to taxpayers. Addressing the tax challenges raised by digitalisation has been a top priority of the OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework in BEPS since 2015 with the release of the BEPS Action 1 Report. At the request of the G20, the Inclusive Framework has continued to work on the issue, delivering an interim report in March 2018. In 2019, members of the Inclusive Framework agreed to examine proposals in two pillars which could form the basis for a consensus solution to the tax challenges arising from digitalisation. That same year, a programme of work to be conducted on Pillar One and Pillar Two was adopted and later endorsed by the G20.This report explores options and issues in connection with the design of a global minimum tax that would address remaining BEPS issues.
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14/10/2020
Report
Tax Challenges Arising from Digitalisation – Report on Pillar One Blueprint
The OECD/G20 Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) Project aims to create a single set of consensus-based international tax rules to address BEPS, and hence to protect tax bases while offering increased certainty and predictability to taxpayers. Addressing the tax challenges raised by digitalisation has been a top priority of the OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework in BEPS since 2015 with the release of the BEPS Action 1 Report. At the request of the G20, the Inclusive Framework has continued to work on the issue, delivering an interim report in March 2018. In 2019, members of the Inclusive Framework agreed to examine proposals in two pillars, which could form the basis for a consensus solution to the tax challenges arising from digitalisation. That same year, a programme of work to be conducted on Pillar One and Pillar Two was adopted and later endorsed by the G20.This report focuses on new nexus and profit allocation rules to ensure that, in an increasingly digital age, the allocation of taxing rights with respect to business profits is no longer exclusively circumscribed by reference to physical presence. It reflects the Inclusive Framework’s views on key policy features, principles and parameters, and identifies remaining political and technical issues where differences of views remain to be bridged, and next steps.
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14/10/2020
Report
OECD Economic Surveys: United Kingdom 2020
Like many countries, the United Kingdom has been hit severely by the COVID-19 outbreak. A strict lockdown was essential to contain the pandemic but halted activity in many key sectors. While restrictions have eased, the country now faces a prolonged period of disruption to activity and jobs, which risks exacerbating pre-existing weak productivity growth, inequalities, child poverty and regional disparities. On-going measures to prevent a second wave of infections will need to be carefully calibrated to manage the economic impact. The country started from a position of relatively high well-being on many dimensions. But productivity and investment growth have been weak in recent years and an ambitious agenda of reforms will be key to a sustainable recovery. Leaving the EU Single Market, in which the economy is deeply integrated, creates new economic challenges. Decisions made now about management of the COVID-19 crisis and future trade relationships will have a lasting impact on the country’s economic trajectory for the years to come.SPECIAL FEATURES: COVID-19 CRISIS; EU EXIT; PRODUCTIVITY
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13/10/2020
Policy response
COVID-19 crisis response in Eastern Partner countries
The impact of the Covid-19 crisis on public health in the six EU Eastern Partner (EaP) countries remains limited with 187 reported fatalities in the region as of 14 April. Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia (because of their proximity to Iran) saw the region’s first cases of Covid-19 in late February. Swift containment measures and limited intra-regional mobility have so far helped limit the spread of the virus, and the number of recorded cases remains relatively low in the South Caucasus.
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12/10/2020
Report
Tax Challenges Arising from Digitalisation – Economic Impact Assessment
The OECD/G20 Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) Project laid the foundations of the project to address the tax challenges arising from the digitalisation of the economy with the release of the BEPS Action 1 Report. Since then, the OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework on BEPS has been working on the issue, delivering an interim report in March 2018, at the request of the G20.In May 2019, the Inclusive Framework adopted a Programme of Work, which was endorsed by the G20 Finance Ministers and G20 Leaders in June 2019. The Programme of Work outlined proposals in two pillars that could form the basis for a multilateral consensus-based solution. It also provided that the OECD Secretariat would undertake an economic impact assessment of the proposals to ensure that all members of the Inclusive Framework could be kept fully informed of the economic and tax revenue impact of key decisions relating to the proposals.This report presents an ex ante analysis of the economic and tax revenue implications of the Pillar One and Pillar Two proposals under discussion by the Inclusive Framework as part of its work to address the tax challenges arising from the digitalisation of the economy.
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12/10/2020
Statement
Cover Statement by the Inclusive Framework on the Reports on the Blueprints of Pillar One and Pillar Two
The current context of the COVID-19 pandemic makes the need for a solution [to the tax challenges arising from digitalisation of the economy] even more compelling than when it was first considered. Governments have responded through increased spending on healthcare and by providing unprecedented levels of financial support to both businesses and workers to cushion them from the economic blow of this crisis. However, the time will come when governments will need to focus on putting their finances back on a fair and sustainable footing.
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07/10/2020
Policy response
E-commerce in the time of COVID-19
This brief discusses how the COVID-19 crisis is accelerating an expansion of e-commerce towards new firms, customers and types of products, likely involving a long-term shift of e-commerce transactions from luxury goods and services to everyday necessities. It also highlights how policy makers can leverage the potential of digital transformation in retail and related areas to support business adaptation and to enhance social distancing, while ensuring that no one is left behind.
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05/10/2020
Report
OECD Economic Surveys: Thailand 2020
Thailand has made impressive economic and social progress over several decades. However, the COVID-19 crisis has interrupted this progress. Thanks to its sound macroeconomic policy framework, Thailand was well placed to respond rapidly to the sharp economic downturn. Nevertheless, achieving high-income country status will require, in addition to a strong recovery programme, a set of policy reforms focused on productivity growth and human capital accumulation. Thailand has made remarkable progress in expanding access to education, and the share of highly educated workers has increased significantly. Nevertheless, because of skills mismatches, substantial labour shortages have prevailed in a range of occupations and industries, which makes it important to improve vocational education and adult training programmes. As the demand for services has become important globally, Thailand has an opportunity to boost its exports of services, diversify its economic activity, and therefore become more resilient in the face of unexpected shocks. This would involve a focus on digital services and business-to-business services, which represent a large share of the value of manufacturing products. Focus on human capital, skills, digital technology, and high-value services would help Thailand resume strong economic growth and social progress after the COVID-19 crisis.SPECIAL FEATURES: HUMAN CAPITAL; TRADE IN SERVICES
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29/09/2020
Report
The Financial System
The New Approaches to Economic Challenges (NAEC) initiative was established to distil lessons from the Global Financial Crisis and now the systemic crises sparked by the COVID-19 pandemic. This book publishes short summaries of a diverse range of thinking and proposals from a prestigious series of experts. NAEC invited them to share their expertise with those who wish to learn more about the financial system from those at its heart. They debate the theory and models of the financial system as well as the role of its different component parts, such as currency, insurance or asset management and how they interact. And they offer advice on how financial policy can contribute to making the financial system more resilient.
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29/09/2020
Report
OECD Business and Finance Outlook 2020
The OECD Business and Finance Outlook is an annual publication that presents unique data and analysis on the trends, both positive and negative, that are shaping tomorrow’s world of business, finance and investment. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted an urgent need to consider resilience in finance, both in the financial system itself and in the role played by capital and investors in making economic and social systems more dynamic and able to withstand external shocks. Using analysis from a wide range of perspectives, this year’s edition focuses on the environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors that are rapidly becoming a part of mainstream finance. It evaluates current ESG practices, and identifies priorities and actions to better align investments with sustainable, long-term value – in particular, the need for more consistent, comparable and available data on ESG performance.
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28/09/2020
Policy response
Biodiversity and the economic response to COVID-19: Ensuring a green and resilient recovery
This Policy Brief focuses on the vital role of biodiversity for human life and the importance of integrating biodiversity considerations into the recovery from the COVID-19 crisis. The Brief first outlines how biodiversity loss is a key driver of emerging infectious diseases and poses a variety of other growing risks to businesses, society and the global economy. Investing in the conservation, sustainable use and restoration of biodiversity can help to address these risks, while providing jobs, business opportunities and other benefits to society. The Brief then examines how governments are factoring biodiversity into their stimulus measures and recovery plans in practice, highlighting both concerning trends and best practices. The Brief concludes with policy recommendations on how governments can better integrate biodiversity into their COVID-19 stimulus measures and broader recovery efforts.
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24/09/2020
Report
Latin American Economic Outlook 2020
The Latin American Economic Outlook (LEO) 2020 focuses on the role of digital transformation in helping to navigate through challenging times. The Covid-19 pandemic is having a profound impact on socio-economic conditions, accentuating the already complex scenario faced by a region with significant structural weaknesses. This unprecedented crisis comes at a time of high aspirations and reinforces the need to transform the very foundations of the development model in the region. The report explores how digital transformation can help to cope with the current socio-economic situation, boost productivity, strengthen institutions and achieve higher levels of inclusion and well-being. The LEO 2020 also highlights that international partnerships are fundamental to reaping the benefits of the digital transformation.The LEO is a joint annual publication produced by the OECD Development Centre, the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (UN ECLAC), the Development Bank of Latin America (CAF) and the European Union (EU). It is the first pillar of the EU Regional Facility for Development in Transition for Latin America and the Caribbean.
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23/09/2020
Report
OECD Economic Surveys: Israel 2020
The Israeli economy was performing well before the COVID-19 shock but the pandemic is threatening to reverse some of Israel’s recent economic achievements, raise poverty and exacerbate wide productivity disparities between its vibrant high-tech sector and lagging sheltered sectors. Lockdown measures and high uncertainty have led to a sharp contraction in output and reduced employment. In this environment, macroeconomic policy needs to remain supportive and flexible to adapt to the evolving health situation. Enhancing training and job search support is crucial to help laid-off workers transition to new jobs quickly and avoid long-lasting negative economic effects. Structural reforms and additional public investment to improve educational outcomes, boost infrastructure and foster product market competition are key to strengthening the recovery. Reducing wide differences in resources between municipalities will promote equal opportunities for everyone. Tax reforms to further strengthen in-work benefits, cut inefficient tax expenditures, reduce distortions created by the business and property tax system and better align taxes with environmental externalities will make the recovery more inclusive and sustainable, while generating additional revenues.SPECIAL FEATURES: REDUCING MUNICIPAL DISPARITIES; TAXATION
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17/09/2020
Report
States of Fragility 2020
States of Fragility 2020 sets a policy agenda for fragility at a critical turning point: the final countdown on Agenda 2030 is at hand, and the pandemic has reversed hard-fought gains. This report examines fragility as a story in two parts: the global state of fragility that existed before COVID-19, and the dramatic impact the pandemic is having on that landscape. It acknowledges the severe reality of fragility in its multidimensionality and complexity. It explores thinking and practice on fragility to propose new ideas on human capital analysis and conflict prevention in order to adapt policy for more resilient outcomes. With a thematic emphasis on peace in fragile contexts, it highlights the important role of peacebuilders, diplomats, and security actors for peace, and builds the case for enhanced complementarity and coherence across the Humanitarian-Development-Peace nexus. It concludes by reconciling theory with practice to explore what it means to work effectively in fragile contexts. Focusing on fragility will be imperative to build peaceful, just and inclusive societies that leave no one behind.
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16/09/2020
Report
OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2020
This Interim Report provides updates for G20 country projections made in the June 2020 issue of OECD Economic Outlook (Number 107).
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German
14/09/2020
Blog article
Côte d’Ivoire and Morocco: tax reforms for sustainable health financing
This blog drafted by Céline Colin, Tax Economist, and Bert Brys, Senior Tax Economist, Centre for Tax Policy and Administration, OECD, argues that like many other African countries, Côte d’Ivoire and Morocco will need to continue to mobilise domestic resources to meet the health needs of their populations, during the COVID-19 crisis and beyond.
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11/09/2020
Report
Beyond Growth
We are facing a series of converging planetary emergencies linked to the environment, the economy, and our social and political systems, but we will not meet these challenges using the tools of the last century. We need to rethink the role of the economy in improving the well-being of people and the planet. As the world’s leading intergovernmental forum on economic policy, the OECD has a central role to play in creating a new economic narrative. OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría therefore invited a high-level group of experts to contribute their proposals on what needs to change in economic policy and policymaking. This report summarises their conclusions. The Advisory Group argues that we need to go beyond growth, to stop seeing growth as an end in itself, but rather as a means to achieving societal goals including environmental sustainability, reduced inequality, greater wellbeing and improved resilience. This requires updating the philosophy, tools and methods underpinning the analysis that influences economic decision-making. Drawing on developments across the modern field of economics and political economy, the report argues for a new approach which recognises the rootedness of economic systems and behaviour in the relationship between people, social institutions and the environment.
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11/09/2020
Blog article
Scaling-up job opportunities in food systems for youth and women in West Africa
Koffi Zougbédé, Sahel and West Africa Club Secretariat (SWAC) explains how and why addressing the challenges of financing, skills development and co-ordination can significantly contribute to the dynamism of off-farm activities and the creation of more decent jobs for women and youth in West Africa.
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09/09/2020
Policy response
Responding to the COVID-19 and pandemic protection gap in insurance
The COVID-19 pandemic and the measures taken to limit the spread of the disease have significantly disrupted economic activity in countries around the world, resulting in significant business interruption losses. The vast majority of these losses are likely to be absorbed by policyholders as, unless governments (or courts) intervene, few companies have business interruption coverage that is likely to respond to these types of losses–exposing the existence of an important protection gap for some pandemic-related business interruption losses. This note provides an overview of how business interruption insurance against pandemic risk could be provided with support from governments, and some of the challenges and considerations necessary for establishing such a programme.
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