The war in Ukraine has quashed hopes for a quick end to rising inflation from COVID-19 related supply bottlenecks seen across the global economy during 2021 and early 2022.
High food and energy prices and the continued worsening of supply-chain problems imply that consumer price inflation will peak later and at higher levels than previously foreseen.
The new OECD projections show the large and global impact the war is having on inflation, which has already reached 40-year highs in Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States.
A gradual reduction of supply chain and commodity price pressures and the impact of rising interest rates should begin to be felt through 2023, but core inflation is nonetheless projected to remain at or above central bank objectives in many major economies at year-end.
See also: OECD Economic Outlook, June 2022.