Local Employment and Economic Development (LEED Programme)

Local scenarios of demographic change


A LEED project for 2011-2012

Policies and strategies for sustainable development, skills and employment

The LEED Programme is investigating local economic strategies for shrinking and ageing labour markets with a project in 2013-14, expanding on this 2011/2012 project

The project is conducted in collaboration with the Environment Directorate (ENV), the Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs (ELS), the Public Governance and Territorial Development Directorate (GOV) and the Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry (STI)

With the support of the European Commission DG Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion


Objective / Issues / Methods / Participation / Outputs / Contact


Poland / Japan / Netherlands / Sweden / China




Demographic change is affecting all OECD member countries and developing economies. Fertility rates are lowering, ageing population is increasing, youth unemployment is increasing and the complexity of urban-rural shrinkage is posing numerous challenges to job creation and sustainable development agendas. Strategic solutions cannot be based on addressing one of these factors alone but taking into account the interplay of these elements within a particular local area of development (urban or rural).

This project aims to provide strategic guidelines for governments and organisations involved in the implementation of employment and skills development programmes at the local level on how better confront demographic changes. The project will seek to outline future local development scenarios to facilitate adoption of appropriate guidelines.

2012 Report

Demographic change and local development: shrinkage, regeneration and social dynamics (Released March 2012)


See also the Highlights

Issues to be addressed

The project will explore the following areas:


Sustainable local development models and shrinkage scenarios.


Employment and skills development in new areas of growth (low-carbon and silver).


Services to the elderly and social inclusion.


Developing the silver economy and entrepreneurs (including social entrepreneurs, care jobs and migration implications).


Fertility rate policies and implications for labour markets.



The international study will be conducted through 3 instruments:


Literature review, databases analysis, and case studies appraisal conducted by the OECD Secretariat.


Surveys and focus groups of experts in the field of demographic change. Workshops will analyse cases within the domains of the project, and extract policy and strategic recommendations.


Field study visits of selected cases where demographic change is prominent and/or where innovative strategies addressing demographic change have been put in place. Comprehensive appraisal of the extent of the policies and programmes put in place by the host area will be conducted by the group of experts.



The study is conducted in collaboration with interested countries and the support of the European Commission. Interested countries/regions could:

  • Submit a case for analysis and participate in focus group meetings. The case will contribute to the final synthesis report.
  • Propose an international focus group workshop and study visit to be hosted by the region of their choice. The group of experts will conduct an analysis of the case and propose strategies and policies adjusted to the local context. A report for the area analysed will be prepared by the Secretariat and also will be included as a separate chapter in the final synthesis report.
  • Be a core-member of the project participating in all activities, publications and events.

The project is based on Voluntary Contributions of each participant country and the support of the European Commission.


Poland flag‌  Poland

Japan flag Japan

Netherlands flag‌  Netherlands


‌  China (People’s Republic of)


  Workshop: Generational shift in the regional labour market (Dalarna, Sweden), 16 October 2013
  Conference: Shrinking cities in Europe (Essen, Germany), 12-13 September 2013
  Seminar: Back to Katrina - What strategies for urban resilience? What economic and social territorial impacts? (Paris, France), 25 March 2013
  Workshop: Demographic change and labour market - Policies and strategies in the Province of Limburg (Maastricht, The Netherlands), 9 November 2012
  Workshop: Demographic change and labour market - Policies and strategies in the Province of Drenthe and Groningen (Assen, Netherlands), 5 November 2012
  Study visit: Partnership strategies for demographic change and ageing (Province of Carinthia, Austria) 10-12 October 2012
  Workshop: Local revitalization policies for shrinking and ageing society: North-Central Kyoto (Kyoto City, Japan) 29 September 2012
  II Experts' Meeting: Employment, skills and entrepreneurship in the Mediterranean (Barcelona, Spain) 6 July 2012
  Capacity building seminar: Strategic approaches to demographic change in Russia and Eastern Europe (Trento, Italy) 3-4 July 2012
  I Experts' Meeting: Local employment, skills and entrepreneurship strategies in the Mediterranean - Developing pathways for the future (Barcelona, Spain) 18 July 2011
  Workshop: Policies and strategies for demographic change - Skills, employment and sustainable development (Paris, France) 20 June 2011

Workshop: Demographic change & local development - New ways of thinking, new financing mechanisms organised within the 
7th Annual Meeting of the OECD LEED Forum on Partnerships and Local Governance (Vienna, Austria) 10-11 March 2011


Conference: Shrinkage in Europe: causes, effects and policy strategies (Amsterdam, The Netherlands) 16-17 February 2011



A synthesis report on Local Scenarios of Demographic Change, implications and strategies for Sustainable Development, Skills and Employment. The report will be published by the OECD.

Guidelines for Local Management of Demographic Change (small booklet).


An international conference to present the results of the project.


National conferences as requested.


Web 2.0:




‌  Poland

  Demographic transition and an ageing society - Implications for local labour markets in Poland Łódzkie region - Demographic challenges within an ideal location  Pomorskie region - Responding to demographic transitions towards 2035  Małopolska region demographic transition - Working for the future 

Pages: 156

Languages: English

Publication Date: 
April 2013


Pages: 56

Languages: English

Publication Date:
April 2013


Pages: 70

Languages: English

Publication Date:
April 2013

DOI: 10.1787/5k48189zpsmw-en

Pages: 95

Languages: English

Publication Date: 
April 2013



Video tour - long version


Video tour - short version

Japan flag  Japan

Socio-economic alliances in response to north Kyoto demographic transition

Pages: 28
Publication date: 19 November 2013


‌ Netherlands flag Netherlands

‌Demographic change in the Netherlands: Strategies for resilient labour markets

Pages: 214
Languages: English
Publication Date: June 2013
DOI: forthcoming
See also the Highlights

Report presentation on 20 June 2013 in Utrecht-The Netherlands. See presentations and the summary note


Video tour - long version


Video tour - short version



Report presentation on 16 October 2013 in Dalarna, Sweden
Generation shift in the swedish labour market

Pages : 46
Languages : English
Publication date : 19 November 2013


The silver and white economy: the chinese demographic challenge

Pages : 36
Languages : English
Publication date : 19 November 2013



For further information about the project please contact Nathalie Cliquot at the OECD Secretariat.