16-July-2020
English
In the medium term, we expect global production to increase, in step with rising demand due to population and income growth. In the next ten years, prices will be trending slightly downward. Moreover, productivity growth is going to drive the predicted increase in output.
15-July-2020
English
This year’s ELP comes at a particularly important moment. The COVID-19 crisis has caused global turmoil. The health, economic and social implications of the pandemic are unprecedented with no clear end in sight.
15-July-2020
English
This crisis can be particularly damaging for industries in which many women work, such as air travel, tourism, retail activities, accommodation, food and beverage. In OECD countries, women represent close to half of employment in the air transport industry, 53% in food and beverage services, and 60% in accommodation. Some manufacturing industries with strong participation of women are also facing severe disruption.
15-July-2020
English
In this challenging context, I would like to first congratulate the Costa Rican authorities for the innovative measures adopted to respond to the pandemic and to protect the most vulnerable. For instance, Bono Proteger, a cash transfer programme aimed to support informal, self-employed workers, as well as those who have lost their jobs, has proved a key measure to support those most in need.
13-July-2020
English
The economic slowdown that we were already experiencing worsened due to lockdown measures, the fall in global economic activity, and the disruption to international trade that had already been weakened by trade tensions is further complicated by the interruption of global value chains. We also anticipate a decline in remittances, tourism and foreign direct investment.
10-July-2020
English
Throughout this crisis, I have stressed that the choice between health and the economy is a false dilemma. Another false dilemma is the choice between a vigorous recovery and sustainability. We must pursue both objectives together.
9-July-2020
English
The unemployment rate has also risen precipitously in recent months, reaching 14.7% in April before falling back to 11.1% in June. Worryingly, the last time the US unemployment rate exceeded the recent peak was during the Great Depression.
8-July-2020
English
This deep recession has already been reflected in the labour market: the OECD-wide unemployment rate rose sharply from 5.2% in February to 8.4% in May. It is expected to increase further to 9.4% by the end of the year, again assuming a single wave of infection, and to fall back only gradually to 7.7% by the end of 2021.
8-July-2020
English
Because of the COVID crisis, and unlike in 2008/09, ALL sources of financing for development are under stress - even remittances plunged. We estimate private external financing flows to developing countries to drop by USD 700 billion in 2020, a shock which will be concomitant with a fall in tax revenues, by far the largest and most sustainable source of financing in developing countries, at about USD 5 trillion every year.
7-July-2020
English
We are witnessing a sharp drop in economic activity caused by lockdowns and by households and firms curtailing their spending. We estimate that the level of GDP OECD-wide in the second quarter of 2020 was 15% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2019.