Agricultural trade

OECD Agricultural Outlook: 2003-2008


The ninth edition of the OECD Agricultural Outlook (Browse it / Buy it publication) analyses how global and domestic forces are shaping agricultural markets over the medium term. Continuing global economic weakness, compounded by drought-induced production adjustments in some countries, and government support policies are conditioning market outcomes in the near term. The interaction of these factors, together with an expected revival of the global economy in 2004 will help shape OECD and world agricultural markets up to 2008.

A weak and drawn-out economic recovery and the aftermath of drought in North America and Australia have lead to divergent price trends for crop and livestock sectors. High initial crop prices and low livestock prices at the beginning of the outlook are expected to converge as production adjusts with the break in the drought. Eventually, an economic rebound and strengthening demand should lead to increased trade and firmer prices over the projection period to 2008. The evolution of domestic and trade policies will be an important, but uncertain element in this respect. Issues addressed in the report include:

- What is the role of government policies and how are they influencing farmers’ decisions?

- What are the likely market effects of the United States’ Farm Act?
- What will be the market impact of an enlarged EU-25?
- How important are developments in Ukraine’s agriculture for world markets?

This book is essential reading for all those involved with agricultural markets. It provides the reader with valuable information on market trends and medium term prospects for the main agricultural products, including sugar on this occasion. It also shows how these are influenced by government policies and highlights some of the risks and uncertainties that may influence the Agricultural Outlook.

Tables provide detailed commodity projections to 2008 for production, consumption, trade, stocks and prices in OECD countries and selected information on other countries, including China, Argentina, the Russian Federation and Brazil.


To access the complete database, which contains series going back as far as 1970 and selected results for the scenarios discussed in this publication, consult the OECD Agricultural Databases, soon available on CD-ROM and on line at