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The March 2014 Market Monitor for the Agricultural Market Information System
OECD is contributing actively to the establishment of AMIS, an agricultural market information system called for by G20 Agriculture Ministers with the aim of addressing food price volatility through more timely, accurate and transparent information on global food markets.
Early indications for world wheat, maize and rice production in 2013 point to record levels and an overall increase in supplies in the new 2013/14 marketing season.
Global agricultural production is expected to grow 1.5% a year on average over the coming decade, compared with annual growth of 2.1% between 2003 and 2012, according to the latest OECD-FAO agricultural market projections for production, consumption, trade, stocks and prices of featured commodities.
Agricultural trade can be a powerful engine for economic growth, poverty reduction, and development. However, efforts by developing countries to expand their agricultural trade are often hampered by domestic supply-side constraints such as lack of trade-related infrastructure. This report looks at some of the most important of these constraints, and features case studies from Indonesia, Zambia and Mozambique.
This study provides quantitative assessments of the impact of two structural changes that a number of market observers have identified as contributing to world wheat market price volatility. The factors examined relate to changes in demand in the large emerging countries of the BRICs (comprising Brazil, the Russian Federation, India and China).
Recent experience of highly turbulent markets has renewed interest in quantitative assessment of price volatility by stochastic simulations using the AGLINK-COSIMO model. Measuring the contribution of correlation of yield shocks to price volatility, this paper shows that correlation effects account for a significant portion of price volatility for coarse grains and wheat.
Rio+20 faces challenges that the Rio Earth Summit could not have foreseen: a growing gap between the rich and the poor, a global economic crisis, and some 2 billion more people by 2050 relying on the planets natural resources and the environment.
Market thinness, where there are few buying or selling offers, can contribute to price volatility. Contrary to general assumptions, agricultural commodity markets have not become 'thinner', according to this study of trade in selected commodities from 1970 to 2010.
Low stocks to use ratios of recent years were one of the contributory factors to the grain price spike in 2007-08, says this paper on international stockholding arrangements with economic provisions for stabilising world agricultural commodity prices.