In 2010 Agricultural Ministers of OECD and Key Partner countries discussed challenges and opportunities which might shape the development of agricultural markets in the coming decades. The meeting took place against the background of agricultural prices that had risen steeply in the preceding years, price volatility, and the still high number of malnourished people in the world, A number of key issues were identified, and Ministers agreed that joint efforts are required to be prepared for the future. These efforts will need to be shared between governments at different levels, the industries along the food supply chain, and various institutions involved in the agricultural innovation system.
To support the development of such joint efforts, the OECD proposes to develop long-term scenarios for food and agriculture that focus on the challenges and opportunities identified, help to quantify indicators relevant for these areas, and inform a discussion on strategies to improve the food system’s resilience to possible threats and its preparedness for the opportunities ahead. This work involves four steps, including two workshops, the quantification of scenarios with the help of several different modeling tools, and a report summarizing the outcomes and conclusions drawn.
OECD Workshop on Long-term Scenarios for Food and Agriculture
3-4 December 2013
TUESDAY 3 DECEMBER 2013
09:30 – 09:55: Welcome by the organizers; overview on the project and objectives of this first workshop; structure of the workshop.
- Ken Ash (Director for Trade and Agriculture, OECD): Welcome and opening remarks
- Martin von Lampe (OECD): Welcome, overview on the project and objectives of this workshop
- Martin Mayer (Workshop facilitator): Presentation of workshop process
|Session 1. Shared Storylines for Contextual Scenarios to 2050
09:55 – 10:45: Introductory Presentations. Key scenarios for food and agriculture
10:45 – 12:15: Scenario development in break-out groups
A: Based on the proposed scenarios: Are the proposed two contextual scenarios suitable for the purpose of this project? Where do they need modifications or refinements? Which elements are missing?
B: Based on relevant scenario drivers: Which other two scenarios should be usefully analyzed as contextual scenarios? How could these complement the proposed ones?
12:15 – 13:00: Reports on group discussion results to plenary, discussion
|Session 2. Key concerns arising for food and agriculture towards 2050
14:30 – 14:50: Presentation of the focus set of contextual scenarios.
- Pierre-Alain Schieb (former OECD, Consultant) :
14:50 – 15:30: Introductory presentations: key concerns in future scenarios for agriculture and food.
15:30 – 17:00: Interactive work in break-out groups: Selection of key concerns arising for food and agriculture towards 2050
17:00 – 18:00: Reports on group discussion results to plenary, discussion
WEDNESDAY 4 DECEMBER 2013
|Session 3. Options for preparing for the future
09:30 – 10:00: Presentation of the focus set of concerns for food and agriculture towards 2050.
- Frank van Tongeren (OECD)
10:00 – 10:30: Open discussion.
10:30 – 10:45: Key measures for preparing for the future
- Martin von Lampe (OECD): Outcomes of the survey on Foresight activities in OECD member countries
10:45 – 11:00: Discussion
11:00 – 12:30: Interactive work in break-out groups: Identifying options for shared policy strategies
12:30 – 13:15: Reports on group discussion results to plenary, discussion
|Session 4. Putting the scenarios together
14:30 – 15:30: Revisiting the 3 main session outcomes
15:30 – 16:00: Plenary Discussion. Are the key elements covered?
16:30 – 17:00: Potential of scenario quantification
- Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (FAO): To what degree will the economic models be able to quantify the identified scenarios, challenges and opportunities, and policy options?
17:00 – 17:30: Plenary discussion. Where models are unable to sufficiently inform decision makers, which additional sources can be invited to the second workshop to provide the necessary input?
17:30 – 18:00: Wrap-up and next steps in the project