The future of the agriculture and food system is subject to considerable concerns. Increasing agricultural demand, fuelled by growing and increasingly urbanized population, rising incomes and substantial demands for feedstock commodities for energy and other non-food uses, is confronted by limited resources for agricultural production, such as land and water. Climate change may play an additional role in changing productivity potentials and production systems around the globe. For the longer run, the system may face a number of challenges:
No one, however, can foretell the future. Given the substantial uncertainty in talking about the longer run, scenarios – rather than predictions – can play an important role in exploring possible developments in the future, and in testing alternative strategies for coping with potential challenges. Policy making in such an uncertain environment needs a basis for judging on the robustness of alternative decisions, and scenarios – both qualitative “stories” and quantitative, model-driven pathways tracking their implications in a theoretically consistent and highlighting their dependency on policy and investment decisions – are a key tool to inform discussions. OECD work focuses on the dialogue across governments and with other stakeholders, experts and modelers. It also brings together aspects from a variety of economic, biophysical, social and political issues, thus allowing for a multi-disciplinary approach necessary for an informed debate. This exchange, the development of shared views on future developments and of common strategies to deal with its challenges is in the center of OECD’s scenario work.
Workshop: “Long-Term Scenarios for Food and Agriculture: Challenges and policy opportunities” 3-4 December 2013,Paris
“Global Economic Model and Scenario Comparison”
Workshop: “Long-Term Scenarios: Supporting Robust Policies for Global Agriculture and Food”
Meeting of the Committee for Agriculture at Ministerial level
Held on 25-26 February 2010 in Paris, Ministers identified and discussed, among others, a number of challenges and opportunities related to future developments of the agricultural sectors and markets. Related documents:
Symposium: “What Future for Agriculture and Food in an Increasingly Globalised World?”
Held on 26 June 2009 in Paris, it brought together some 130 academics, policy makers, civil society, business and International Organisations from a variety of geographic areas.