SWAC › West African Futures

 

Within the framework of the Club's biannual cycle on “West African Futures”, the SWAC Secretariat provides independent and forward-looking analysis which aims to enrich the debate and better inform decision-makers about future challenges.

 smart150‌‌  POAESS-livestockimage‌ 

WAF banner

cov-waf130‌ The 2011-2012 West African Futures (WAF) programme focuses on the spatial, economic and social consequences of settlement and market dynamics on food security. It provides policy makers and key stakeholders with a description of food security challenges that need to be addressed in regional policy and strategy design. In particular, it highlights the importance of coherent and regionally harmonised statistics in improving West African agricultural and food strategies. The programme also demonstrates how the failure to account for unrecorded regional trade in agricultural products considerably biases analyses of food security. Key findings were discussed with West African policy makers at the SWAC Forum; training workshops were held at the UEMOA headquarters. Capitalising on this two-year work, a study has been published within the OECD West African studies series. Data can be visualised within the Statistical Mapping and Analytical Regional Tool (SMART) which allows you to map, follow and compare key settlement data for the 17 West African countries and country groups between 1950 and 2050.    blueline  Find out+

2013 Focus: Consumption patterns

In 2013, the SWAC Secretariat will deepen some of the analyses with interested partners, notably regarding consumption issues. The 2011-2012 analysis revealed serious discrepancies between data available and needs. Policy makers have access to data on production, prices and imports in the global market. However, there is little information on household food consumption, with the exception of a few case studies. However, the development of a regularly updated and exhaustive regional information system appears to be out of reach due to the large diversity in local conditions, disparities between national definitions (urban and rural population, agricultural and non-agricultural, formal and informal), survey methods, diverging use of the collected information (economists, food security experts, nutritionists, on the ground versus politics). 

Better understanding and monitoring of regional consumption dynamics  would allow for a more precise assessment of the food and nutritional situation (energy intake, changing of consumption habits). It would also improve the measurement of surplus and deficit areas and trade flows, including the share of regional trade. The SWAC will bring together a group of experts to work on this issue and will present and will present initial findings at the forthcoming RPCA meeting at the end of 2013.

Data visualisation - SMART

smart database log

‌‌Statistical, Mapping and Regional Analysis Tool (SMART)

Drawing on data produced within the 2011-2012 WAF Programme, SMART allows you to map, follow and compare key settlement data for the 17 West African countries and country groups between 1950 and 2050. By linking this data with agricultural performance, it also provides examples on how settlement dynamics change the way we interpret past trends and assess future potential.

Working Group Meetings & Technical Workshops

“For a long time, we have made political decisions  without knowing what their exact impact would be.” 
Ismaël Fofana, IFPRI, West and Central Africa Office.

Presentation of the Programme

  

Expected Results

A Working Group composed of key stakeholders was at the centre of the entire process. It drew on existing work conducted by Members and other institutions, and provided inputs and guidance on work priorities. West African statisticians also participated in training workshops to learn more about alternative methods such as spatial modelling in order to fill the data gap. Some key findings and policy options from the WAF study were presented and discussed at the SWAC Forum.


Did you know?

  • Between 1950 and 2010, the total population of West Africa grew from 72 to 290 million inhabitants.
  • The demographic transition in West Africa is accompanied by a significant spatial redistribution of populations.
  • Over the past six decades, the urban population multiplied by 20, from 6 million to 118 million inhabitants, and the level of urbanisation grew from 8% to 41%.
  • During the same period, the rural population multiplied by 2.6, from 66 million to 172 million, and rural population densities increased.
  • Agricultural production between 1980 and 2010 saw an average annual growth of 3.7% compared to the world average of 2.21%. 
  • Imports, as a share of total food availability, are stable.
  • Higher yields account for 40% of the increase in production between 1980 and 2007.
  • The prevalence of undernourishment has declined by 44% since 1990, but 33 million West Africans still remain undernourished.

Evolution of Undernourishment

POA-undernourishment

Contacts