Composite leading indicators (CLIs) designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, point to a mild loss of growth momentum in most major economies for April 2011.
Statistics Working Paper N. 39- 2011/4 - This paper reports on revision properties of different de-trending and smoothing methods (cycle estimation methods), including PAT with MCD smoothing, a double Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter and the Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF) filter. The different cycle estimation methods are rated on their revision performance in a simulated real time experiment. Our goal is to find a robust method that gives
Composite leading indicators (CLIs) are pointing to some divergence in the pace of economic activity across major economies.
Composite leading indicators (CLIs) for February 2011, designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue pointing to expansion in most OECD countries.
Consumer confidence in the OECD area has levelled out since January 2010, possibly announcing a new peak or maybe just indicating uncertainty in the coming months. Confidence levels remain historically low, a result of the financial crisis and indicating that the effects of the crisis are continuing to be felt by consumers who remain pessimistic about the future.
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The recent economic and financial crisis has increased the spotlight on the OECD’s CLI and indeed broadened its base of users beyond its traditional specialised audience. To respond to the needs of this broader base, the OECD has decided to produce this note that provides a more accessible and less technical explanation of the CLI and the ways in which it should be interpreted.
Consumer confidence indicators in recent months have pointed to a marked improvement in sentiment since the historic lows recorded towards the beginning of 2009. Whilst encouraging, some caution is needed as confidence remains low by historic standards. This is shown in the following graphs for the major seven OECD member countries and the country grouping "OECD Area", which put consumer confidence indicators in a historical context.
Recent data on consumer confidence suggests that households are quite pessimistic on the severity of the current financial crisis, and its impact on the economy at large. Confidence indicators for OECD member countries in recent months have witnessed an almost unprecedented collapse, with some levels falling to the lowest on record.
A guide for constructing and using composite indicators for policy makers, academics, the media and other interested parties. In particular, this handbook is concerned with indicators which compare and rank country performance.
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For good economic policy making and many other economic agents’ decisions it is necessary to correctly assess the current and, especially, the future economic situation. Over the last 50 years several leading indicators have been developed to signal the movements, up and down, of future economic activity before they occur, as well as to provide some indication of the magnitude of those movements. One of the most well known (and