Leading indicators and tendency surveys

OECD Workshop on Composite Leading Indicators for Major OECD Non-Member Economies, 25 - 26 April 2005

 

Workshop objectives

To strengthen co-operation between the OECD and participating national agencies in the area of cyclical analysis, particularly in the selection of leading indicators and construction of composite leading indicators (CLIs).

Identify and agree on a set of leading indicators for each country and to establish regular and timely transmission of data.

Propose a modality to continue monitoring the quality of the selected leading indicators and (adjust as required) and to discuss the application of the OECD approach for the construction of CLIs for the participating countries.

Final Report: Meeting Conclusions and Future Work

Monday, 25 April  
Session 1:  Work on Leading Indicators by Invited OECD Non-Member Economies  
 Aims  
  • to present national experience in the field of cyclical analysis.
  • to discuss statistical/methodological issues with regard to construction of national CLIs.

Selected country presentations:

Composite Leading Indicators: The Brazilian Experience

Salomao L. Quadros da Silva, Getulio Vargas Foundation, Brazil

Paper
Presentation
The Brazilian Economy
Rebeca de la Rocque Palis, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística, Brazil
Presentation

Measuring Business Cycles in China: A Brief Review

Yongjun Zhang, State Information Center of China

Paper

China's Experiences in Constructing and Applying Composite Leading Indicators

Shi Faqi, National Bureau of Statistics, China

Paper

Business Cycle Analysis of Economic Indicators

Shri A. B. Chakraborty, Reserve Bank of India

Paper

Development of Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) in Indonesia

Slamet Sutomo, BPS – Statistics Indonesia

Paper
PresentationPaper

A Brief history of business Cycle Analysis in South Africa

JC Venter, South African Reserve Bank

Paper
Presentation

Session 2:  Work on Leading Indicators by the OECD

Aims

  • To give brief background information on key issues for discussion in the following sessions, and to present recent development work by the OECD.

OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI) Methodology

Ronny Nilsson, OECD

Presentation

Application of OECD Methodology to OECD Non-Member Economies

Presentation of OECD background paper: Composite Leading Indicators for Major Non-Member Economies – selection of Leading Indicators and Construction of Composite Indicators

Ronny Nilsson, OECD

Paper
Presentation

Discussion session:

  • What cycle to monitor? (business cycle, growth cycle growth rate cycle)

 

  • What reference indicator? (single reference series like GDP or industrial production or composite coincident indicator)

Session 3:  Potential Leading Indicators as Components for Construction of Country Specific CLIs

Aim

to discuss the initial OECD selection of leading indicators for Non-Member countries:

  • indicators available at the OECD
  • indicators not available at the OECD  
  • to present and discuss country suggestions for alternative and/or additional potential leading indicators, data and metadata availability, time period covered by indicators, frequency and timelines of data and suggestions for efficient modes of data collection or transmissions
  • to agree on a set of leading indicators for each country

Selected country presentations:

Selection of Variables to form An Index of  Leading Indicators for the Brazilian Economy

Salomao L. Quadros da Silva, Getulio Vargas Foundation, Brazil

Presentation

List of Potential Leading Indicators for China

Shi Faqi, National Bureau of Statistics, China

Paper

Data Availability for the Construction of a composite Leading Business Cycle  Indicator for South Africa

JC Venter, South African Reserve Bank

Paper
Presentation

Tuesday, 25 April

Session 3:  Potential Leading Indicators as Components for Construction of Country Specific CLIs  (cont.)

Summary of the first day and main conclusions reached

OECD Selection of Potential Leading Indicators:
Cyclical Characteristics and Problems with Specific Indicators

Ronny Nilsson, OECD

Presentation

Discussion session on:

  • Alternative and/or additional potential leading indicators

Data and Metadata Collection from Non-Member Countries by the OECD

Ronny Nilsson, OECD

Presentation

Discussion session on:

  • data and metadata availability, frequency, timeliness etc.
  • efficient modes of data collection

Session 4:  Meeting conclusions and future work

Aims:

  • To discuss conclusions from Sessions 1-3 above and decide on possible future activities for the OECD in cooperation with national agencies.

Brief overview of main conclusions,  recommendations and agreements from Sessions 1-3

Identification of specific future activities/projects, such as those involving:

  • to discuss and propose a modality to continue monitoring the quality of the selected leading indicators (and to adjust as required)
  • future meeting

 

Presentation 

 


 
 

 

 

 

 

 

Countries list

  • Afghanistan
  • Albania
  • Algeria
  • Andorra
  • Angola
  • Anguilla
  • Antigua and Barbuda
  • Argentina
  • Armenia
  • Aruba
  • Australia
  • Austria
  • Azerbaijan
  • Bahamas
  • Bahrain
  • Bangladesh
  • Barbados
  • Belarus
  • Belgium
  • Belize
  • Benin
  • Bermuda
  • Bhutan
  • Bolivia
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • Botswana
  • Brazil
  • Brunei Darussalam
  • Bulgaria
  • Burkina Faso
  • Burundi
  • Cambodia
  • Cameroon
  • Canada
  • Cape Verde
  • Cayman Islands
  • Central African Republic
  • Chad
  • Chile
  • China (People’s Republic of)
  • Chinese Taipei
  • Colombia
  • Comoros
  • Congo
  • Cook Islands
  • Costa Rica
  • Croatia
  • Cuba
  • Cyprus
  • Czech Republic
  • Côte d'Ivoire
  • Democratic People's Republic of Korea
  • Democratic Republic of the Congo
  • Denmark
  • Djibouti
  • Dominica
  • Dominican Republic
  • Ecuador
  • Egypt
  • El Salvador
  • Equatorial Guinea
  • Eritrea
  • Estonia
  • Ethiopia
  • European Union
  • Faeroe Islands
  • Fiji
  • Finland
  • Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM)
  • France
  • French Guiana
  • Gabon
  • Gambia
  • Georgia
  • Germany
  • Ghana
  • Gibraltar
  • Greece
  • Greenland
  • Grenada
  • Guatemala
  • Guernsey
  • Guinea
  • Guinea-Bissau
  • Guyana
  • Haiti
  • Honduras
  • Hong Kong, China
  • Hungary
  • Iceland
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Iraq
  • Ireland
  • Islamic Republic of Iran
  • Isle of Man
  • Israel
  • Italy
  • Jamaica
  • Japan
  • Jersey
  • Jordan
  • Kazakhstan
  • Kenya
  • Kiribati
  • Korea
  • Kuwait
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Lao People's Democratic Republic
  • Latvia
  • Lebanon
  • Lesotho
  • Liberia
  • Libya
  • Liechtenstein
  • Lithuania
  • Luxembourg
  • Macao (China)
  • Madagascar
  • Malawi
  • Malaysia
  • Maldives
  • Mali
  • Malta
  • Marshall Islands
  • Mauritania
  • Mauritius
  • Mayotte
  • Mexico
  • Micronesia (Federated States of)
  • Moldova
  • Monaco
  • Mongolia
  • Montenegro
  • Montserrat
  • Morocco
  • Mozambique
  • Myanmar
  • Namibia
  • Nauru
  • Nepal
  • Netherlands
  • Netherlands Antilles
  • New Zealand
  • Nicaragua
  • Niger
  • Nigeria
  • Niue
  • Norway
  • Oman
  • Pakistan
  • Palau
  • Palestinian Administered Areas
  • Panama
  • Papua New Guinea
  • Paraguay
  • Peru
  • Philippines
  • Poland
  • Portugal
  • Puerto Rico
  • Qatar
  • Romania
  • Russian Federation
  • Rwanda
  • Saint Helena
  • Saint Kitts and Nevis
  • Saint Lucia
  • Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
  • Samoa
  • San Marino
  • Sao Tome and Principe
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Senegal
  • Serbia
  • Serbia and Montenegro (pre-June 2006)
  • Seychelles
  • Sierra Leone
  • Singapore
  • Slovak Republic
  • Slovenia
  • Solomon Islands
  • Somalia
  • South Africa
  • South Sudan
  • Spain
  • Sri Lanka
  • Sudan
  • Suriname
  • Swaziland
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • Syrian Arab Republic
  • Tajikistan
  • Tanzania
  • Thailand
  • Timor-Leste
  • Togo
  • Tokelau
  • Tonga
  • Trinidad and Tobago
  • Tunisia
  • Turkey
  • Turkmenistan
  • Turks and Caicos Islands
  • Tuvalu
  • Uganda
  • Ukraine
  • United Arab Emirates
  • United Kingdom
  • United States
  • United States Virgin Islands
  • Uruguay
  • Uzbekistan
  • Vanuatu
  • Venezuela
  • Vietnam
  • Virgin Islands (UK)
  • Wallis and Futuna Islands
  • Western Sahara
  • Yemen
  • Zambia
  • Zimbabwe
  • Topics list