Leading indicators and tendency surveys

OECD Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series

 

The following page gives:

  1. the chronology of turning points in the reference series for regional/zone area aggregates and individual countries and
  2. the list of components series for each individual country CLI.

The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. Up to April 2012 the main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries was industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. From April 2012 onward the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used as the reference for identification of turning points in the growth cycle.

Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series.

Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turing point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) 

The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behaviour; data quality; timeliness and availability.

 

Download OECD CLI components and turning points for individual countries and area totals

CLI components and turning points in PDF

CLI turning points in CSV

 

 

 

Countries and area totals covered

33 OECD member countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Israel(1), Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States

 

6 non member economies: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa

 

The OECD-Total covers the 33 countries listed above


The OECD + Non-member economies covers the 33 OECD countries + the 6 non member economies listed above


The Major Seven countries are: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States.

 

The OECD Europe countries are: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and United Kingdom.


The Euro area - EMU (European Monetary Union)
Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia and Spain


The Four Big European Countries are: France, Germany, Italy, and United Kingdom.


The NAFTA area covers the following 3 countries: Canada, Mexico, and United States.


The Major 5 Asia countries are: China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea.

 

                               


 1.

Information on data for Israel: http://oe.cd/israel-disclaimer

 

 

 

 

 

 

OECD Total Area - Reference Turning Points
OECD + Major 6 Non-member economies - Reference Turning Points
Major Seven Countries - Reference Turning Points
OECD Europe - Reference Turning Points
Euro Area - Reference Turning Points
Four Big European Countries - Reference Turning Points
NAFTA Area - Reference Turning Points
Major Five Asia - Reference Turning Points

Australia - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
Austria - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
Belgium - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
Canada - Component Series & Turning Points
Chile - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
Czech Republic - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
Denmark - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
Estonia - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
Finland - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
France - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
Germany - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
Greece - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
Hungary - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
Ireland - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
Israel - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
Italy - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
Japan - CLI Component Series & Turning Points

Korea - CLI Component Series & Turning Points 
Luxembourg - CLI Component Series ann Turning Points
Mexico - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
Netherlands - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
New Zealand - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
Norway - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
Poland - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
Portugal - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
Slovak Republic - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
Slovenia - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
Spain - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
Sweden - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
Switzerland - CLI Component Series and Turning Points
Turkey - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
United Kingdom - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
United States - CLI Component Series & Turning Points

Non-member economies
Brazil - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
China - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
India - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
Indonesia - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
Russian Federation - CLI Component Series & Turning Points
South Africa - CLI Component Series & Turning Points

   

 

 

 

 

Countries list

  • Afghanistan
  • Albania
  • Algeria
  • Andorra
  • Angola
  • Anguilla
  • Antigua and Barbuda
  • Argentina
  • Armenia
  • Aruba
  • Australia
  • Austria
  • Azerbaijan
  • Bahamas
  • Bahrain
  • Bangladesh
  • Barbados
  • Belarus
  • Belgium
  • Belize
  • Benin
  • Bermuda
  • Bhutan
  • Bolivia
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • Botswana
  • Brazil
  • Brunei Darussalam
  • Bulgaria
  • Burkina Faso
  • Burundi
  • Cambodia
  • Cameroon
  • Canada
  • Cape Verde
  • Cayman Islands
  • Central African Republic
  • Chad
  • Chile
  • China (People’s Republic of)
  • Chinese Taipei
  • Colombia
  • Comoros
  • Congo
  • Cook Islands
  • Costa Rica
  • Croatia
  • Cuba
  • Cyprus
  • Czech Republic
  • Côte d'Ivoire
  • Democratic People's Republic of Korea
  • Democratic Republic of the Congo
  • Denmark
  • Djibouti
  • Dominica
  • Dominican Republic
  • Ecuador
  • Egypt
  • El Salvador
  • Equatorial Guinea
  • Eritrea
  • Estonia
  • Ethiopia
  • European Union
  • Faeroe Islands
  • Fiji
  • Finland
  • Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM)
  • France
  • French Guiana
  • Gabon
  • Gambia
  • Georgia
  • Germany
  • Ghana
  • Gibraltar
  • Greece
  • Greenland
  • Grenada
  • Guatemala
  • Guernsey
  • Guinea
  • Guinea-Bissau
  • Guyana
  • Haiti
  • Honduras
  • Hong Kong, China
  • Hungary
  • Iceland
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Iraq
  • Ireland
  • Islamic Republic of Iran
  • Isle of Man
  • Israel
  • Italy
  • Jamaica
  • Japan
  • Jersey
  • Jordan
  • Kazakhstan
  • Kenya
  • Kiribati
  • Korea
  • Kuwait
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Lao People's Democratic Republic
  • Latvia
  • Lebanon
  • Lesotho
  • Liberia
  • Libya
  • Liechtenstein
  • Lithuania
  • Luxembourg
  • Macao (China)
  • Madagascar
  • Malawi
  • Malaysia
  • Maldives
  • Mali
  • Malta
  • Marshall Islands
  • Mauritania
  • Mauritius
  • Mayotte
  • Mexico
  • Micronesia (Federated States of)
  • Moldova
  • Monaco
  • Mongolia
  • Montenegro
  • Montserrat
  • Morocco
  • Mozambique
  • Myanmar
  • Namibia
  • Nauru
  • Nepal
  • Netherlands
  • Netherlands Antilles
  • New Zealand
  • Nicaragua
  • Niger
  • Nigeria
  • Niue
  • Norway
  • Oman
  • Pakistan
  • Palau
  • Palestinian Administered Areas
  • Panama
  • Papua New Guinea
  • Paraguay
  • Peru
  • Philippines
  • Poland
  • Portugal
  • Puerto Rico
  • Qatar
  • Romania
  • Russian Federation
  • Rwanda
  • Saint Helena
  • Saint Kitts and Nevis
  • Saint Lucia
  • Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
  • Samoa
  • San Marino
  • Sao Tome and Principe
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Senegal
  • Serbia
  • Serbia and Montenegro (pre-June 2006)
  • Seychelles
  • Sierra Leone
  • Singapore
  • Slovak Republic
  • Slovenia
  • Solomon Islands
  • Somalia
  • South Africa
  • South Sudan
  • Spain
  • Sri Lanka
  • Sudan
  • Suriname
  • Swaziland
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • Syrian Arab Republic
  • Tajikistan
  • Tanzania
  • Thailand
  • Timor-Leste
  • Togo
  • Tokelau
  • Tonga
  • Trinidad and Tobago
  • Tunisia
  • Turkey
  • Turkmenistan
  • Turks and Caicos Islands
  • Tuvalu
  • Uganda
  • Ukraine
  • United Arab Emirates
  • United Kingdom
  • United States
  • United States Virgin Islands
  • Uruguay
  • Uzbekistan
  • Vanuatu
  • Venezuela
  • Vietnam
  • Virgin Islands (UK)
  • Wallis and Futuna Islands
  • Western Sahara
  • Yemen
  • Zambia
  • Zimbabwe
  • Topics list