Consumer confidence in the OECD area has levelled out since January 2010, possibly announcing a new peak or maybe just indicating uncertainty in the coming months. Confidence levels remain historically low, a result of the financial crisis and indicating that the effects of the crisis are continuing to be felt by consumers who remain pessimistic about the future.
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The recent economic and financial crisis has increased the spotlight on the OECD’s CLI and indeed broadened its base of users beyond its traditional specialised audience. To respond to the needs of this broader base, the OECD has decided to produce this note that provides a more accessible and less technical explanation of the CLI and the ways in which it should be interpreted.
Consumer confidence indicators in recent months have pointed to a marked improvement in sentiment since the historic lows recorded towards the beginning of 2009. Whilst encouraging, some caution is needed as confidence remains low by historic standards. This is shown in the following graphs for the major seven OECD member countries and the country grouping "OECD Area", which put consumer confidence indicators in a historical context.
Recent data on consumer confidence suggests that households are quite pessimistic on the severity of the current financial crisis, and its impact on the economy at large. Confidence indicators for OECD member countries in recent months have witnessed an almost unprecedented collapse, with some levels falling to the lowest on record.
A guide for constructing and using composite indicators for policy makers, academics, the media and other interested parties. In particular, this handbook is concerned with indicators which compare and rank country performance.
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For good economic policy making and many other economic agents’ decisions it is necessary to correctly assess the current and, especially, the future economic situation. Over the last 50 years several leading indicators have been developed to signal the movements, up and down, of future economic activity before they occur, as well as to provide some indication of the magnitude of those movements. One of the most well known (and
This database provides access to time series data for OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), standardised consumer and business confidence indicators, business tendency survey indicators by sector and consumer opinion survey indicators as published in each monthly edition of the OECD Main Economic Indicators. Accessing this source data will enable users to analyse in depth the development of business cycles within and across
Can we trust official statistics? Do they give us a true picture of how societies are changing? Enrico Giovannini, OECD Chief Statistician, will answer your questions on the role and future of statistics during an online debate between 14.00 and 16.00 Paris time on Thursday 12 July.
Statistics Working Paper N. 21 - 2007/1 - This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the current period performance of the OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for 21 OECD Member countries and three zone aggregates (OECD area, Euro area and Major Seven countries) for which CLIs are available for a longer time period. The revisions analysis of OECD CLIs is similar to those recently undertaken by the Organisation for a range of
Statistics Working Paper N. 20 - 2006/5 - The OECD developed a System of Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) for its member countries in the early 1980.s based on the "growth cycle" approach and up to 2006 the Organisation compiled composite leading indicators for 23 of the 30 Member countries. Country coverage has now been expanded to include recently new OECD member countries (Korea, New Zealand1, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and