Leading indicators and tendency surveys

Joint European Commission-OECD Workshop on International Development of Business and Consumer Tendency Surveys, Brussels, 14 - 15 November 2005

 

Important notice: in line with OECD policy to reduce paper consumption, delegates are invited to download papers from this location and to bring them to the meeting.  Paper copies will not be available on the day.

Final Draft Agenda

Monday 14 November   

09.30 – 09.50

Welcome and introduction - EC and OECD

Session 1 –  Presentation of work by the OECD Task Force on “Improvement of Response Rates and Minimization of Respondent Load”

Improvement of response rates and minimization of respondent load are of high priority for all national institutes. The specific aim of the task force was to identify good national practice and to make recommendations on the following issues:

09.50 – 10.25 

Presentation by taskforce leaders: 
Relationship between response rates and data collection methods – Analysis of key issues and main findings
Appendix - Bianca Martelli, ISAE

ppt presentation

Discussion

10.25 – 11.15 

Business Surveys in South Africa: Testing the ground for internet-based surveys keeping the impact of response rates in mind - Pieter Laubscher, BER, South Africa
ppt presentation

Why is the response rate of the TANKAN high? - Kenichiro Tahara, Bank of Japan
ppt presentation

Discussion

11.15 – 11.35

Coffee break

11.35 – 12.10

Assessing and minimising the impact of non-response on survey estimates – Analysis of key issues and main findings - Richard McKenzie, OECD
ppt presentation

Discussion

12.10 – 12.50

Adjusting for non-response: constant-sample method in the French business surveys - Philippe Scherrer, INSEE
ppt presentation

 

Analysis of non-response patterns in South African business tendency surveys - Pieter Laubscher, BER, South Africa

ppt presentation

Discussion

12.50 - 13.00

Session 1 conclusions and recommendations

13.00 - 14.20

Lunch

Session 2 –   Presentation of work by OECD Task Force on ‘Harmonisation of Survey Operation and Technical Design”

There are at present no international guidelines and recommendations outlining best practice for the development of business tendency surveys. However, in 2003 the OECD published a Handbook aimed at helping non-member countries to implement and/or develop their business tendency surveys. The survey procedures presented and recommended in the handbook are procedures which are used for official statistical surveys. These recommendations could, however, be used as a starting point for further discussion on development of standards for survey operation and technical design.

Presentations by taskforce leaders: 

14.20 – 14.50 

Efficient sample design and weighting methods – Analysis of key issues and recommendations - Marco Malgarini, ISAE
ppt presentation

Discussion

14.50 - 15.20

Identification and Assessment of Recommended Practices for the Design of Internet Surveys - Anna Stangl, Ifo Institute
ppt presentation

Discussion

15.20  – 15.30

Session 2 conclusions and recommendations

Session 3 – Recent developments of the OECD Business Tendency and Consumer Opinion Surveys Portal:
http://www.oecd.org/std/bt-coi/coordination

To promote harmonization and facilitate best practice through the sharing of information on business tendency and consumer opinion surveys between international organizations and national institutes. The OECD web-portal provides access to the following:

• existing international guidelines and recommendations;
• questionnaires used by national institutes;
• summary metadata describing key elements of national institute surveys;
• links to selected examples of good national practice;
• data presented in a common format for countries and regional aggregates;
• links to papers from meetings organized by the OECD, European Commission and CIRET.

15.30 – 16.00

Brief overview on recent improvements to the portal including developments in the collection and dissemination of metadata - Ronny Nilsson, OECD

ppt presentation

Discussion

16.00 – 16.20

Coffee break

16.20 - 16.50

Calculation of normalised business and consumer confidence indicators and OECD and Non-OECD area aggregates (OECD Total, Major 7, Big 6 Non-OECD, World proxy) - Olivier Brunet, OECD

ppt presentation

Discussion

16.50 – 17.00

Session 3 conclusions and recommendations - Denis Ward, OECD

Session 4 – Uses of business and consumer opinion survey data, implications for data producers

This session outlines the uses of business and consumer opinion survey data in the analytical work of several survey banks.  The presentations also touch briefly on issues / implications of interest to producers of survey data.

17.00 - 17.20

Use of business and consumer opinion survey data in business cycle analyses from a user perspective - Guiseppe Parigi, Bank of Italy

ppt presentation
17.20 - 17.40 Use of business and consumer opinion survey data in business cycle analyses from a user perspective - Ece Oral, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
ppt presentation
17.40 - 17.50 Discussion

Tuesday 15 November

Session 4 – Uses of business and consumer opinion survey data, implications for data producers (cont.)

09.30 - 09.45 Use of business and consumer opinion survey data in business cycle analyses from a user perspective - Benoît Robert, National Bank of Belgium
ppt presentation
09.45 - 10.05 The usefulness of survey measures from a research and policy perspective - Ricardo Mestre, European Central Bank
ppt presentation
10.05 - 10.15 Discussion
10.15 - 10.25 Session 4 conclusion and recommendations - OECD

 

Session 5 –

Recent developments in the Seasonal Adjustment of Business Tendency and Consumer Opinion Data

10.25 - 10.55 Performance of Seasonal Adjustment Procedures: Simulations and Empirical Results - Philip Hans Franses, Econometric Institute - Erasmus University Rotterdam
ppt presentation
Discussion
10.55 - 11.10 Session 5 conclusions and recommendations - European Commission
11.10 - 11.30

Coffee break

 

Session 6 – Presentations of studies on other topics

This session presents recent work of a number of national agencies and the European Commission and, in particular, identifies avenues / issues for possible future work by the Workshop in the evolution of business and consumer opinion surveys.

11.30 – 12.00

Individual responses to BTS and the forecasting of manufactured production - Hélène Erkel-Rousse, INSEE

ppt presentation

Discussion

12.00 - 12.30

Quantified perceived and expected inflation in the Euro Area - how incentives improve consumers inflation forecasts - Staffan Lindén, European Commission

ppt presentation

 

Discussion

12.30 - 14.00

Lunch

14.00 - 14.25

Indicator of economic sentiment and confidence indicator in services - Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic

ppt presentation

 

Discussion

14.25 - 14.50

Composite indicators in the business tendency surveys: Practice of Central Statistical Office of Poland and European Commission - Katarzyna Walkowska, GUS, Poland
ppt presentation

 

Discussion

14.40 - 15.15

Comparison of national versus European Commission confidence indicators - Maarten van de Stadt, European Commission

ppt presentation

 

Discussion

15.15 - 15.40

Consumer and entrepreneurs confidence and inflation perception from perspectives of Estonian entry into the European Union and joining the EMU - Marjo Josing, Statistical Office of Estonia

ppt presentation
Discussion
15.40 - 15.50 Session 6 conclusions and recommendations - OECD

Session 7 – Meeting conclusions and future work

15.50 - 16.20

Review of meeting conclusions and recommendations for:

Task Force on “Improvement of Response Rates and Minimization of Respondent Load” 

Task Force on “Harmonisation of Survey Operation and Technical Design”

Future work on Priority Areas

Discussion 

Future meetings (Back to back with CIRET, Rome, in 2006)

Other business

Denis Ward, OECD

 

 

 

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