Leading indicators and tendency surveys

Fourth Joint European Commission-OECD Workshop on International Development of Business and Consumer Tendency Surveys, Brussels, 12 - 13 October 2009


Draft agenda (pdf)



Information for participants

Presenter guidelines

Previous workshops

The venue for the meeting will be: Hotel Metropole, 31 Place de Brouckère, B-1000 Brussels (hotel booking form)

Participation at this workshop is by invitation only.  For further information, please contact kate.raggett@oecd.org

Workshop objective


The objective of the joint EC– OECD workshop is to foster harmonization of business and consumer opinion surveys. It also provides a forum to exchange knowledge and discuss the current challenges and prospects in the field.


Draft agenda

MONDAY, 12 October

9.50 – 10.10 Welcome and introduction EC and OECD

10.10 – 11.10 Session 1. Economic and social aspects of the current crisis


Background and introduction to topic
Marco Mira d'Ercole, OECD

Results from the survey among institutes on consumers and crisis
Roberta Friz, EC ppt presentation

Households’ financial situation and the crisis: macro and micro evidence from the EU and ISAE surveys
Marco Malgarini, ISAE ppt presentation

What do the surveys reveal about the impact of the crisis on the South African economy?
George Kershoff, BER ppt presentation


11.10 – 11.30 Coffee break

11.30– 13.00 Session 1 continued. Economic and social aspects of the current crisis

Assessing the increase of Italian families perceived vulnerability
S. Gabriele, ISAE; C. Pollastri, Cer; Michele Raitano, Sapienza Università di Roma

The impact of financial crisis on consumers, results from ad-hoc questions
Elif Pars, GfK Turkiye abstract ppt presentation


Study on the crises from a historical perspective using surveys
Reuben Borg, EC ppt presentation


Is there a credit crunch in Italy? Evidence on new ISAE survey data

Stefano Costa and Patrizia Margani, ISAE ppt presentation



13.00 – 14.30 Lunch

14.30 – 16.00 Session 2. Response rates, data quality and availability issues


Introduction and background to topic
Kristine Vlagsma, EC

The financial services survey in the EU
Rosario Spadaro, IPSOS, Belgium ppt presentation

What impact does the response rate and weighting have on the reliability of South Africa's retail survey?

George Kershoff, BER ppt presentation

Effect of the changeover to the mandatory reply on the response rate for the French surveys

Olivier Biau, EC ppt presentation


Bank Indonesia - consumer survey

Nurcahyo Heru Prasetyo, Bank of Indonesia ppt presentation


16.00 – 16.20 Coffee break


16.20 – 17.50 Session 3. Issues related to survey harmonisation


Introduction and background to topic
David Brackfield, OECD

Current status of the business tendency survey harmonisation in non-EU countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries
Elena Tosetto, OECD ppt presentation

Experience with introducing NACE rev 2 into the short-term business statistics in Eurostat and EU Member States
Brian Newson, EUROSTAT ppt presentation


Experiences with the Visual Analog Scale in the German Internet Business Survey
Anna Stangl, Ifo abstract ppt presentation


US - Experimental implementation of Web based consumer surveys, as well as comparisons between several modes: telephone (landline and cell), web, and mail
Richard Curtin, University of Michigan ppt presentation



20.00 Dinner at restaurant (at participant expense)

TUESDAY, 13 October

9.30 – 10.40 Session 4. Modelling seasonality and handling qualitative survey data


Background and introduction to topic
Kristine Vlagsma, EC

Is seasonal adjustment necessary for Business Confidence series?

Emmanuelle Guidetti, OECD; Gyorgy Gyomai, OECD; Francesca Spinelli, OECD

ppt presentation


The effects on seasonality while migrating surveys from quarterly to monthly frequency: the case of Brazil
Aloisio Campelo, Fundação Getulio Vargas, Brazil ppt presentation

Benchmarking seasonal adjustment softwares using Frankenstein’s series

Dominique Ladiray, INSEE abstract ppt presentation



10.40 – 11.00 Coffee break

11.00 – 13.00 Session 5. Use of surveys for forecasting key economic variables


Background and introduction to topic
Dominique Ladiray, INSEE

Survey of expectations in Israeli industry as a leading forecasting tool
Daphna Aviram-Nitzan, Manufacturers’ Association of Israel ppt presentation


Can we forecast quarterly national data revisions with tendency surveys
Pierre-Alain Pionnier, INSEE


A new survey-based indicator to track industrial production
Olivier Biau and Angela D'Elia, EC abstract ppt presentation


A user perspective on use of surveys with a special focus on inventories
Philippe de Rougemont, ECB ppt presentation


Use of Chilean business surveys in conjunctural assessment and short-term forecasting
Michael Pedersen, Central Bank of Chile ppt presentation

13.00 – 14.30 Lunch

14.30 – 16.10 Session 6. New survey areas and alternative survey types


Introduction and background to topic
Kristine Vlagsma, EC


The CBI's recent answering practices survey of the retail survey
Jonathan Wood, CBI ppt presentation

Survey of professional forecasters (SPF)
Luca Onorante, ECB ppt presentation

New survey on the Italian residential housing market
Roberto Sabbatini, Banca d'Italia ppt presentation


TANKAN as a tool for forecasting economic condition in Japan

Satoshi Kudoh, Bank of Japan ppt presentation



16.10 – 16.30 Coffee break

16.30 – 17.30 Session 7.  Presentations on the development of data visualization tools


Gyorgy Gyomai, OECD


Presentations of the OECD eXplorer visualisation tool
David Brackfield, OECD ppt presentation


Presentations on the development of data visualization tools
Rosa Ruggeri Cannata, EUROSTAT ppt presentation


The Dutch business cycle factsheet

Statistics Netherlands ppt presentation



17.30 – 17.50 Information session on the CIRET workshop (Budapest, November 2009) and CIRET conference (New York, October 2010)


Richard Etter, Executive Officer, CIRET ppt presentation

For information:

Inclusion or isolation: strategy of interaction of small business with a society and governmental structures

ppt presentation

Dr. G.Gradoselskaya, Analytical Centre at Government of Russian Federation


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