Leading indicators and tendency surveys

Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs), OECD, September 2013


Composite leading indicators continue to point to diverging growth patterns between advanced and emerging economies


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09/09/2013 - Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue to signal diverging growth patterns across major economies. The CLIs point to improvements in growth in most major OECD countries but stabilising or slowing momentum in large emerging economies.

The CLIs point to economic growth firming in the United States and the United Kingdom and to growth above trend in Japan. The CLI for Canada indicates a tentative positive change in momentum.

In the Euro Area as a whole, the CLI continues to indicate a gain in growth momentum. In Germany, the CLI points to growth firming. The CLI for Italy continues to signal a positive change in momentum and the CLI for France points to a tentative positive change in momentum.

The CLIs point to growth returning to trendin China andto growth around trend rate in Russia. In Brazil and in India, the CLIs signal growth below trend rates.

The OECD Development Centre's Asian Business Cycle Indicators (ABCIs) suggest mixed growth prospects across Emerging Asia (read more).

Growth firming in the OECD area


Underlying data - Source: OECD Composite Leading Indicators Database

 The methodology used to compile OECD CLIs and reference series trend is described in the following document: "OECD system of Composite Leading Indicators".


Watch also our short video explaining how
the Composite Leading Indicators are compiled




Next publication date: 9 October 2013 - see the release calendar



For further information, journalists are invited to contact the OECD's Media Relations Division on (33) 1 45 24 97 00 or news.contact@oecd.org;  others should contact the Statistics Directorate on stat.contact@oecd.org.



Link to previous news releases



More information on leading indicators at www.oecd.org/std/cli


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