Leading indicators and tendency surveys

Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs), OECD, October 2011


OECD composite leading indicators continue pointing to slowdown in economic activity

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10/10/2011 - Composite leading indicators (CLIs) for August 2011, designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue to point to a slowdown in economic activity in most OECD countries and major non-member economies. The CLI for the OECD area fell 0.5 point in August, the fifth consecutive monthly decline.

The CLIs for the United States, Germany and Russia point more strongly to a slowdown than in last month's assessment, but are still above 100, indicating that economic activity remains above its long-term trend. For all other major economies, except Japan, the CLIs are now below 100 pointing strongly to a slowdown in economic activity below long term trend.

The CLI for Japan continues to indicate a potential turning-point in economic activity, but there are no strong signs of a slowdown.

The OECD Development Centre's Asian Business Cycle Indicators (ABCIs) show signs of moderation in ASEAN economies (Read more).

Slowdown in the OECD area

Underlying data

Underlying data - Source: OECD Composite Leading Indicators Database


The methodology used to compile OECD CLIs and reference series trend is described in the following document: "OECD system of Composite Leading Indicators".

For a better interpretation of OECD CLI consult the following document: Interpreting OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI).




Next publication date: 14 November 2011 - see here the 2011 release calendar



For further information, journalists are invited to contact the OECD's Media Relations Division on (33) 1 45 24 97 00 or news.contact@oecd.org;  others should contact the Statistics Directorate on stat.contact@oecd.org.



Link to previous news releases



More information on leading indicators at www.oecd.org/std/cli


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