OECD composite leading indicators point to stable pace of expansion
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13/12/10 - OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity, suggest a stabilisation in the pace of expansion across the OECD.
Similar to last month's assessment, growth prospects vary across major economies. But tentative signs of convergence in economic cycles are appearing in many countries. The October 2010 CLIs for the United States and China, and to a lesser extent France, show signs of improvement compared to last month, while the CLIs for Germany and Japan show moderation towards a stable pace of expansion. The CLI also continues to point to expansion in Russia.
Downturn signals are still evident for Canada, Italy and India, while Brazil remains in a slowdown phase.
The OECD Development Centre's Asian Business Cycle Indicators (ABCIs) suggest that the strong recovery seen in ASEAN economies in the first half of 2010 is gradually losing momentum (Read more).
Stable pace of expansion in the OECD area
Underlying data - Source: Composite Leading Indicators (Main Economic Indicators)
In July 2010, the OECD reviewed the CLI for 3 countries (China, India, Indonesia). In doing so, some component series have been dropped or replaced. As a consequence, chronology of turning points of the CLIs as well as component series have been revised. Download further details on the change (PDF).
The methodology used to compile OECD CLIs and reference series trend is described in the following document: "OECD system of Composite Leading Indicators".
For a better interpretation of OECD CLI consult the following document: Interpreting OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI).
The next publication of the OECD's CLI will be on 10 January 2011.
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OECD Main Economic Indicators (MEI)