Leading indicators and tendency surveys

Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs), OECD, April 2011

 

The OECD composite leading indicators signal continued expansion


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11/04/2011 - Composite leading indicators (CLIs) for February 2011, designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue pointing to expansion in most OECD countries.

CLIs continue pointing to robust expansion relative to trend in Germany and the United States and a possible regained momentum in France and Canada. The CLI for the United Kingdom points to a slow but stable pace of expansion. The CLI for Italy points to a loss of momentum in economic activity.
Because of the exceptional circumstances the country is facing, it is not possible to provide reliable estimates of the CLI for Japan at this stage.

The CLI for China points to a possible moderation in economic activity. For Brazil the CLI indicates that economic activity should remain near its long-term potential. The CLI for India continues pointing to a slowdown and the CLI for Russia continues pointing to expansion.

Expansion in the OECD area

Underlying data - Source: Composite Leading Indicators (Main Economic Indicators) 

From February 2011 the OECD publishes Composite Leading Indicators for Chile, Estonia, Israel and Slovenia. The methodology used can be downloaded here.

 

The methodology used to compile OECD CLIs and reference series trend is described in the following document: "OECD system of Composite Leading Indicators".

For a better interpretation of OECD CLI consult the following document: Interpreting OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI).

 

 

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Next publication date: 9 May 2011 - see here the 2011 release calendar

 

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Contacts
For further information, journalists are invited to contact the OECD's Media Relations Division on (33) 1 45 24 97 00 or news.contact@oecd.org;  others should contact the Statistics Directorate on stat.contact@oecd.org.

 
 

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More information on leading indicators at www.oecd.org/std/cli