Leading indicators and tendency surveys

Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), OECD, Octobre 2013


Composite leading indicators signal improvements in growth in most OECD countries, diverging patterns among emerging economies 

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09/10/2013 - Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue to signal improvements in growth in most major OECD countries with divergent patterns among large emerging economies.

The CLIs point to economic growth above trend in the United States and Japan,and to growth firming in the United Kingdom. The CLI for Canada indicates a positive change in momentum.

In the Euro Area as a whole, the CLI continues to indicate a gain in growth momentum. In Germany, the CLI points to growth firming. The CLI for Italy continues to signal a positive change in momentum. Also the CLI for France now more clearly points to a positive change in momentum.

The CLIs point to growth returning to trendin China,and to a tentative positive change in momentum in Russia. In Brazil and in India, the CLIs continue to signal growth below trend rates.

Growth around trend in the OECD area


Underlying data - Source: OECD Composite Leading Indicators Database

 The methodology used to compile OECD CLIs and reference series trend is described in the following document: "OECD system of Composite Leading Indicators".


Watch also our short video explaining how
the Composite Leading Indicators are compiled




Next publication date: 12 November 2013 - see the release calendar



For further information, journalists are invited to contact the OECD's Media Relations Division on (33) 1 45 24 97 00 or news.contact@oecd.org;  others should contact the Statistics Directorate on stat.contact@oecd.org.



Link to previous news releases



More information on leading indicators at www.oecd.org/std/cli


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